Time flies, and more than half of 2023 has passed in the twinkling of an eye. Looking back at the combined action of the release of backlog of demand, policy power support and low base effect in the first half of the year, China's macro-economic recovery growth is obvious. The triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening has been alleviated to varying degrees, showing the operational characteristics of "bottoming out and rebound". However, the global economic growth has slowed down, the fight against inflation in Europe and the United States and the banking crisis are difficult to balance, increasing the fragility of global financial markets, and combining the economic situation outside China, the financial nature of international oil prices has been highlighted in the first half of the year. Economic worries have become the main line affecting oil prices after early March, and the market shows a weak shock pattern. Under the influence of the external macro aspect, China's polyester market fluctuated closely following the commodity market in the first half of the year.

In the first half of 2023, the market of polyester bottle chips in China showed a pattern of strong at first and then weak. The market trend of polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol is still the leading factor of polyester PET market trend. According to Tuduoduo data monitoring, the average price of polyester bottle chips in East China market in the first half of the year was 7251 yuan / ton, the highest price appeared in early April, the highest price was 8100 yuan / ton, and the lowest appeared in mid-June was 6800 yuan / ton. The vibration amplitude is about 1300 yuan / ton.

In January, the spot market of polyester bottle chips in China fluctuated higher. In the first ten days, the market for polyester bottle chips remained weak. In the last ten days, the market of polyester bottle chips is on the strong side. The international crude oil market is strong, the polyester raw material market trend is strong, driven by the cost end, bottle chip manufacturers offer continues to rise, especially on the first day after the festival, the market ushered in a good start, the market January-February negotiation focus rose to 7450-7600 yuan / ton. At the end of January, under the pressure of the decline of international crude oil and polyester raw materials, the focus of market negotiations fell back. From February to mid-March, the polyester bottle market maintained a range of shocks, and the range of market volatility narrowed. Polyester raw material market fluctuates with the range of international crude oil, driven by the cost end, the spot price of the market is adjusted low. Downstream demand continues to be weak, the market trading atmosphere weakens, the market is mainly cautious wait-and-see. From late March to early April, the market for polyester bottle chips rose sharply. Polyester raw materials PTA market supply is tight, the disk continues to rise, costs continue to rise, PET market spot prices rose sharply to 8100 yuan / ton. From the beginning of April, the polyester bottle market began to shake back. With the weakening of the polyester raw material PTA market, the lack of cost support, the polyester bottle chip market shocks down. Due to the increase in supply in the future and the lack of market confidence, the dealer offer gradually tends to the low end, and the spot price in the market gradually falls to 6750-6900 yuan / ton.

Table 1. Monthly average price of polyester bottle chips in China (unit: yuan / ton)

In the second half of 2023, the world economy will still face more instability, and the price of crude oil will not be immune from the global economic slowdown. The market supply increase of polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol, coupled with the production expectation of the new plant, the market supply pressure increases. However, under the support of downstream polyester rigid demand, the market will maintain finishing in the second half of the year, and the cost end will promote the market. In the second half of the year, the new production capacity of polyester bottle chips will continue to increase, and the new production capacity of manufacturers such as Sanfang Lane, Yisheng Hainan, China Resources Jiangyin, Yipu and Baihong may be put on the market one after another. under the background of concentrated production capacity, spot supply in the market will increase significantly, while the export market will shrink, so China's sales will face greater pressure. The third quarter of the second half of the year is still in the peak season of demand, and after the fourth quarter, with the weakening of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market will intensify. Therefore, the market resistance of polyester bottle chips in China will continue to increase in the second half of the year, and the market price may fluctuate low with the cost. Pay close attention to the changes of raw material market and supply and demand side in the later stage.