Methanol: Futures market turns red, industry pessimism remains unchanged
113,527 
June 13, 2023, 5:12 PM On June 13, the methanol market price index was 1894.66, down 70.26 from yesterday and 3.58 per cent from the previous month.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on June 12:
China CFR 230,238 US dollars / ton, down 10 US dollars / ton
European FOB 250-252 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton
Us FOB 74-77 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 293-295 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 1800-1900 (- 1900), South: 1800 (0), North: 1680-1860 (- 1860), Lunan: 1900 (- 1900), Henan: 1920-1980 (- 75), Shanxi: 1710-1870 (- 170), Port: 20302045 (10)
Freight:
North Route-Northern Shandong 200-290 (- 30amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-340 (0-0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-210 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, methanol futures market trends are different, the Chinese market price continues to fall broadly, the maximum downward adjustment is 170 yuan / ton, the cost end support is weak, the supply in the market is still abundant, and the demand side is difficult to improve, the market atmosphere is still depressed; futures market volatility rebounded, port spot prices adjusted with the market, the basis is slightly weaker, trading is OK. Specifically, the market quotation in the main producing areas has been partially lowered, with the central and southern line of 1800 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's quotation of 1680-1860 yuan / ton on the north line and 100 yuan / ton on the low end. At present, prices in some areas of the market continue to decline, and most manufacturers are under great pressure to ship goods. Downstream delivery sentiment is not high, the transaction is general. Guanzhong market prices continue to decline, today's market quotation around 1800-1900 yuan / ton, the market transaction atmosphere is general. The price of the consumer market has been lowered as a whole, including 1900 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 120 yuan / ton in the low end, 1900-1910 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 80 yuan / ton in the lower end. At present, operators in the market are cautious in receiving goods, the wait-and-see mood is gradually rising, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. The market quotation in North China revolves around 1880-1980, while the market quotation in Shanxi has declined widely. today, the quotation revolves around 1710-1870 yuan / ton, and the lower end is reduced by 170yuan / ton. at present, there is no obvious volume in the downstream demand, the cautious mood of the operators in the market is still there, and the market transaction atmosphere is general; the price in Hebei is quoted to 1980-2030 yuan / ton. at present, there is no new price in the market, and most of the operators in the market wait and see, and the transaction atmosphere is limited.
Port market: methanol futures rebounded in shock today. Spot rigid demand negotiation. In recent months, some of the high shipments, arbitrage buying, the basis is slightly weak; forward arbitrage and exchange negotiations are mostly, the basis stabilized. The overall deal is OK. Spot order: 2020-2040, basis 09: 35, deal: 2035-2045, basis: 09: 30, deal: 2020-2045, basis: 09: 25, margin: 30: 7: 2015-2055, basis: 09: 35, margin: 40: 8: 2025-2045, basis: 09: 30: 35, basis: 2040-2045, basis: 09: 30: 35.
|
Area |
2023/6/13 |
2023/6/12 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
1894.66 |
1964.92 |
-70.26 |
|
Northwest |
1680-1900 |
1770-2000 |
-90/-100 |
|
North China |
1710-2030 |
1880-2030 |
-170/0 |
|
East China |
2030-2140 |
2020-2140 |
10/0 |
|
South China |
2020-2140 |
2030-2180 |
-10/-40 |
|
Southwest |
2030-2150 |
2050-2180 |
-20/-30 |
|
Northeast China |
2120-2400 |
2120-2400 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
1900-1950 |
1980-2060 |
-80/-110 |
|
Central China |
1850-2160 |
1920-2160 |
-70/0 |
Forecast in the future: the macro mood of methanol is not good in the near future. on the cost side, the overall coal price remains stable temporarily, and it is difficult to have an upward trend, and the good support for the methanol market is limited. With the gradual restart of the pre-maintenance equipment and the planned commissioning of the new unit in the Chinese market, the supply in the field is expected to increase, and local quotations continue to fall widely, traders and downstream operators are becoming more cautious, and the overall willingness to receive goods is not strong. In addition, the traditional downstream is in the off-season of consumption, and the demand in the market is still in the doldrums, so it may be difficult to improve the demand in the short term. At present, there is no obvious positive support for the macro and fundamentals of the methanol market, and the methanol market may continue to be weak in the short term, while the price of crude oil and coal and the operation of the plant in the field should be paid attention to in the later stage.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Inner Mongolia Shenhua Bayannur |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/4/26 |
2023 / end of May |
Parking maintenance |
|
Northwest Inner Mongolia Energy |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/23 |
2023/6/14 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shaanxi Weihua |
60 |
Coal |
2023/5/3 |
2023/6/5 |
Restarted |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Gansu Liuhua |
10 |
Coal |
2023/4/11 |
To be determined |
Stop the car. |
|
Central Plains Dahua |
50 |
Coal |
2023/5/9 |
To be determined |
Restart failed |
|
Xinjiang Tianye Phase II |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/15 |
2023 / mid-June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Xinjiang new industry |
50 |
Coal |
2023/5/22 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
The second phase of China Sea Chemistry |
80 |
Natural gas |
2023/5/11 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Linyi, Anhui Province |
20 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/23 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
2023/6/10 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Coalification of Yulin (Kaiyue) |
70 |
Coal |
2023/6/8 |
2023 / end of June |
Planned maintenance |
|
Xinjiang Yankuang |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/27 |
2023/6/20 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Northwest energy |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/23 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia Shenhua Mengxi |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/16 |
2023/6/10 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Hengxin high-tech |
15 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/7 |
2023 / mid-June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia god Huaxilai peak |
30 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/6/7 |
2023 / July |
Parking maintenance |
|
Guangxi Huayi |
180 |
Coal |
2023/6/2 |
2023 / June |
Half-load operation |
|
Kunpeng, Ningxia |
60 |
Coal |
2023/6/13 |
Mid-2020 / June |
Temporary Parking |