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PVC: Futures plunged in early trading and Wenhua Index weakened, with more flat futures prices increasing at a low level, and spot ranges were mainly sorted out

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June 12, 2023, 4:23 PM


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PVCA é °è 'e / e / s / s:é é éPVC市场主流成交价格区间整理,各地区现货价格灵活调整。估价对比来看:其中华北地区稳定,华东地区下跌20元/吨,华南地区下跌20-30元/吨,东北地区、华中地区、西南地区稳定。上游PVC生产企业周初开始价格维持稳定为主,未见明显的调整痕迹,但适逢周一多数企业一代合同签订不多。期货高开低走,低位运行,现货市场一口价报盘和点价均有,一口价偏高报盘难成交,基差报盘变化不大,其中华东地区基差报盘09合约-(50-110),华南地区09合约-(0-40)好粉+20,北方地区09合约-(350-400-500)北方地区基差调整较大,西南地区09合约-(180-270)。期价下行后点价货源存在一定的优势,但下游挂单价格普遍偏低,上午实单成交不多,午后点价成交有所改善。

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°é è 'conductor é é °conductorPVC09合约早盘期价跳水,虽然上周五期价上行高点升穿中轨,但强势的运行态势并未得到延续,周一早盘开始后文华指数转弱明显,PVC随之跳水下行,盘内出现最低点后期价继续低位徘徊。技术层面显示布林带(13、13、2)三轨开口稍有收窄,期价的运行在空开23.6%以及多平25.4%的共同作用下,虽然出现减仓但期价下行,倾向于一方面多头止损出场,空开仍旧处于压制的局面中。对于目前的期价运行向上仍旧缺乏动力,因此我们认为期价的运行仍会相对窄幅继续观察5600-5750的运行范围。

A °é è 'recent recent host é host é í í í éPVC作为地产板块典型的代表性商品,近期一直持续下跌,首先整体的商品情绪自节后表现偏弱,宏观压力大的情况下,商品很难走出单独的行情。PVC也难以独善其身,期现两市价格不断受挫,并且行情的特点是有空头主导的盘面行情每次的反弹均不及前高,2023年的地产数据也一直表现不佳,所以PVC板块一直没有较好的支撑因素。目前PVC的供需层面也未见新意,仍旧是供应稳定高库存,现在很多产业都觉得价格跌到了一个相对较低的程度上,很多品种在考虑抄底的问题,目前的整体商品偏弱的情况下,在6月中旬的时间节点上,即便抄底也存在很长一段时间内会面临一个不断震荡式筑底的情况,因此资金成本会成为囤货首要考虑的重要因素,以及面临一个中长线涨不动或者来回反复的情况。整体来看短期之内PVC现货市场难有较好的表现。

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