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PVC: Futures prices have risen for three consecutive years, but mid-track pressure has worked, and spot prices have risen slightly.

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May 29, 2023, 4:48 PM


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PVCA é °è 'e / e / s / s:é é éPVC市场主流成交价格有所上行,主要因为上周五现货价格较低,午后市场报价心态有所恢复。估价对比来看:其中华北地区上涨40-50元/吨,华东地区山岗20-80元/吨,华南地区上涨40-60元/吨,东北地区上涨50元/吨,华中地区上涨30元/吨,西南地区上涨50元/吨。上游PVC生产企业出厂报价未见明显的调整,周初时期多维持观望为主,虽然期货稍微偏强震荡,但上游为维持观望。贸易商一口价报盘相比上周五有所上调,期价的高位运行给与一定的报价支撑,但实单部分存在小幅商谈的空间。各地区基差报盘调整不大,其中华东地区基差报盘09合约-(60-110),华南地区09合约-(0-50)好粉+30,北方地区09合约-(350-400),西南地区09合约-(150-250)。期价震荡区间拉高后,点价货源价格优势不明显,虽然一口价和点价并存,但成交清淡下游制品企业采购积极性不高。

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°é è 'conductor é é °conductorPVC09合约期价走势出现自低点5614以来的三连涨,但期价的高点在面临布林带(13、13、2)中轨压力位时奏效,期价在高点出现下行,全天仓量变化不大,但成交方面空开26.0%对比多开21.9%仍旧较多。盘面也出现一定的空平,散户空单轮番进场。技术层面显示布林带(13、13、2)三轨开口收窄,下轨存走向平向之意。目前的PVC基本面变化不大且宏观并无指引的情况下,料期价的波动仍以窄幅为主,KD日线呈现金叉走势且周线也处于金叉交汇点。整体来看短期之内的期价运行仍旧继续碰触中轨观察5700-5800之间的运行。

A °é è 'recent recent host é host é í í í é虽然期货盘面呈现了三连涨,但现货市场的窄幅调整跟进不足,仅仅期价触底反弹的首日成交尚可,一方面点价低位挂单补货多以刚需为主,投机性需求无法良好的产生,因此除去首日后面虽然期价继续上涨,但成交不佳。目前的供需层面暂时无法出现支撑期现两市价格的因素,部分参与者关注PVC装置开工,是否因为现货市场低迷需求带来自身产品产能的调整,但上游多为大型一体化企业因此产能开工率的变化较小,无法撼动目前的高库存趋势,加之需求一直存在制约。外盘方面国际油市在下一次OPEC+政策会议前权衡了俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯关于供应相互矛盾的信息,一些投资者将其视为OPEC+产油国可能将在6月4日石油产量政策会议上考虑进一步减产的信号。整体来看目前的现货市场仍会窄幅震荡为主。

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