In the 2023 edition of bp World Energy Outlook, bp comprehensively assessed the impact of geopolitical conflicts and the US inflation reduction Act on the global energy industry, and discussed and predicted the major trends and uncertainties of the world's energy transformation by 2050. Global carbon emissions are expected to peak in the 1920s and will be about 30 per cent lower by 2050 than in 2019. It is expected that global oil demand may peak in 2030, and oil will remain dominant in the global energy system in the next 15-20 years. In 2050, renewable energy will account for 65% of global primary energy consumption.

Geopolitics has a profound impact on the development of the global energy system.

Geopolitical conflicts and the inflation reduction Act passed by the United States have had a far-reaching impact on the energy industry.

In the short term, the interruption and shortage of global energy supply caused by geopolitical conflicts has indirectly stimulated many EU countries to shift from imported fossil fuels to locally produced non-fossil fuels, and the issues of energy security and low carbon have once again attracted the attention of all countries. it will accelerate the process of energy transformation in the world, or have a lasting impact on the development of the global energy system.

In the long run, global GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 2.4%, and many governments have stepped up support for energy transformation, such as the passage of the inflation reduction Act in the United States. In order to meet the challenge of decarbonization, the energy industry needs more support from the government, including speeding up the approval of low-carbon energy and infrastructure projects.

The change of global energy demand shows four major trends

There are four main trends in the change of global energy demand: the gradual decline of the status of oil and natural gas, the rapid growth of renewable energy consumption, the popularity of electrification and the large-scale application of low-carbon hydrogen energy.

The bp World Energy Outlook revolves around three energy transformation scenarios, including net Zero scenario, accelerated transition scenario and New Power scenario. The net zero scenario and the accelerated transition scenario assume a significant tightening of global climate policy. Under the net zero scenario, global carbon emissions will be about 95 per cent lower by 2050 than they were in 2019. Under the accelerated transformation scenario, global carbon emissions will be reduced by about 75 per cent by 2050. Changes in social attitudes and consumer behavior will further improve energy efficiency and increase the use of low-carbon energy. The new dynamics scenario is designed to reflect the overall trajectory of the current global energy system and to take into account the decarbonization policies and commitments of governments in recent years.

The total global terminal energy consumption may peak within 10 years.

Under the accelerated transition scenario and net zero scenario, global terminal energy consumption will peak in the next 5 to 10 years, and global energy consumption is expected to fall by 15% to 30% in 2050 compared with 2019. However, under the new power scenario, total global terminal energy consumption will continue to rise around 2040, and then remain roughly stable, and total global energy consumption in 2050 will be 10% higher than in 2019. The main reason for these differences is the level of energy efficiency.

In three scenarios, the share of fossil fuels in global end-energy consumption is expected to fall from about 65 per cent in 2019 to 20 per cent by 2050. Electricity use will increase significantly, with electricity consumption growing by 75 per cent by 2050 and accounting for 33 per cent of global end-energy consumption, up from 25 per cent in 2019. With the growth of renewable energy cost competitiveness and the introduction of more and more low-carbon energy development support policies, renewable energy is expected to account for 35% of global primary energy consumption by 2050, up from about 10% in 2019. 65%. By 2050, low hydrocarbon energy is expected to account for 13% to 21% of global primary energy consumption.

Global oil demand may enter a plateau in the next 10 years

Improved energy efficiency in the transport sector and the growing popularity of alternative energy sources will reduce some of the oil demand, which is expected to enter a plateau and then decline in the next 10 years. However, in the next 15-20 years, oil will continue to play a dominant role in the global energy system.

Under the accelerated transition scenario and net zero scenario, oil will maintain its global dominant energy status before 2035, with an estimated global consumption of 70 million-80 million barrels per day. Global oil consumption will then decline and is expected to fall to 40 million b / d in an accelerated transition scenario and 20 million b / d in a net zero scenario by 2050. Oil consumption under the new power scenario will be stronger, with global oil consumption likely to approach 100m b / d by 2030, followed by a gradual decline to about 75 million b / d by 2050.

Demand for low-carbon hydrogen energy will increase tenfold

The global use of hydrogen energy is expected to continue to increase. Low hydrocarbon energy will play a key role in the decarbonization process of energy systems, especially in the fields of industry and transportation. The use of modern biomass energy such as solid biomass fuel, biomethane and biofuel will grow rapidly, which will help to support decarbonization in industries and industrial production that are difficult to reduce carbon emissions.

It is estimated that the global demand for low-carbon hydrogen energy will increase 10-fold from 2030 to 2050, reaching nearly 300 million tons / year and 460 million tons / year respectively in the accelerated transition scenario and net zero scenario. It is estimated that by 2050, low-carbon hydrogen energy accounts for 5%-10% of the global industrial terminal energy demand, of which the steel industry's demand for low-carbon hydrogen energy accounts for about 40% of the industrial hydrogen demand. By 2050, low-hydrocarbon and hydrogen-derived fuels are expected to account for 10% to 20% of the terminal energy demand of the transportation industry. Green hydrogen will account for 60% of the low-carbon hydrogen supply by 2030 and 65% by 2050, with most of the rest coming from blue hydrogen and a small portion from biomass using BECCS (biomass-carbon capture and sequestration technology) to produce hydrogen.

CCUS (carbon capture, utilization and sequestration) will play a key role in the transformation of low-carbon energy. Decarbonization of industrial carbon capture from the source will help to solve the problem of fossil fuel carbon emissions. Under the accelerated transition scenario and net zero scenario, the global carbon capture is expected to be 400 million to 600 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050; under the new power scenario, the global carbon capture will reach 100 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Given the long development cycle of CCUS's carbon sequestration facilities and related transport facilities, most of the world's CCUS capacity will be completed after 2030.

Although governments are taking corresponding measures to deal with climate change, the reality shows that global carbon emissions are still increasing year by year except 2020 since the 2015 Paris Climate change Conference. The longer it takes to take decisive action to continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the economic costs and the greater the social impact.

Wind, solar and biomass energy will usher in explosive development.

Due to cost reduction and policy support, wind and solar energy will develop rapidly in the future, becoming an important source of low-carbon power and an important support for green hydrogen production. Under the accelerated transition scenario and the net zero scenario, global installed wind and solar power capacity will increase by 450 gigawatts per year by 2035, or 1.9 to 2.5 times the highest growth rate in the past.

Modern biomass energy, including solid biomass fuel, biofuel and biogas, will grow rapidly, which will help industries that are difficult to decarbonize to achieve carbon reduction. In the accelerated transformation scenario and net zero scenario, the global modern biomass energy supply will double to 65 EJ by 2050, while it will be slightly lower to nearly 50 EJ in the new power scenario.

Under the accelerated transformation scenario, about 5 AJ of biomass energy will be used in the BECCS (Biomass Energy-carbon capture and Storage Technology) project by 2050. In the net zero scenario, the biomass energy used by BECCS will reach 13 EJ, half of which will be used for power generation and the rest for hydrogen production.

In the accelerated transition scenario and net zero scenario, global biofuel production will reach 10 Aijiao in 2050, most of which will be used in the aviation industry. In both scenarios, bio-based aviation coal will account for 30% and 45% of the total fuel demand of the aviation industry, respectively.

Electric vehicles will become the absolute main force of new car sales.

Under the accelerated transition scenario and net zero scenario, the global number of electric vehicles is expected to increase to 550 million-770 million by 2035 and 2 billion by 2050, accounting for 80 per cent of global car ownership. It is expected that electric cars will become the absolute main force of new car sales in 2035.

Under the new power scenario, the global number of electric vehicles and electric light trucks will grow slowly by 2035, but they can still reach about 500 million, with electric cars accounting for about 40% of new car sales and about 70% in 2050. China, Europe and North America will be the main regions of global electric vehicle sales growth. Total electric vehicle sales in China, Europe and North America will account for 60% to 75% of the world's new electric vehicle sales by 2035 and 50% to 60% by 2050.

Medium trucks, heavy trucks and buses, which still rely on diesel, will also gradually be electrified and switch to hydrogen fuel. Under the accelerated transition scenario and net zero scenario, the global share of diesel trucks will fall from about 90 per cent in 2021 to 70 per cent in 2021 and to 5 per cent in 2050.

The sustainability of liquid fuel is unstoppable.

Oil-based aviation coal is expected to remain dominant between now and 2030. With the increase in the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), the share of oil-based aviation coal in bio-aviation coal demand will fall to 60 per cent and 25 per cent respectively by 2050 under accelerated transition scenarios and net zero scenarios. By 2050, bio-aviation coal and hydrogen-derived fuel will become the main sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

Hydrogen-derived fuels, including ammonia, methanol and synthetic diesel, will become the main alternatives to petroleum-based marine fuels. Under the accelerated transition scenario and net zero scenario, hydrogen-derived fuel will be promoted on a large scale after 2035, accounting for 30% to 55% of the total global marine fuel demand by 2050; under the new power scenario, oil-based marine fuel still accounts for more than 75% of the total global marine fuel demand. (author Han Yu Chen Zipei unit: Sinopec Petrochemical Research Institute)