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PVC: Technical adjustments were made after futures fell deeply, partial profit-taking in the short term, and inter-cell fluctuations in the spot market

111,826
May 23, 2023, 4:27 PM


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PVCA é °è 'e / e / s / s:é é éPVC市场主流成交价格仍旧在低谷徘徊,现货市场部分小幅调整。估价对比来看:其中华北地区上涨20-50元/吨,华东地区稳定,华南地区上涨20-30元/吨,东北地区下跌50-100元/吨,华中地区、西南地区稳定。首先上游PVC生产企业出厂报价零星补跌50-100元/吨,加之部分异地库同步下调。期货在昨日的大跌后,今日盘面继续低位震荡,现货市场一口价报盘较部分地区昨日仍存小幅下调,期价低位贸易商点价出货为主,基差报盘有所调整,其中华东地区基差报盘09合约-(50-100),华南地区09合约-(0-20)好粉+20-40,北方地区09合约-(350-400),西南地区09合约-(150-250)。部分基差较大的出货节奏尚可,但多以小单刚需补货为主,整体的现货市场成交节奏不变,下游心态相对谨慎。

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°é è 'conductor é é °conductorPVC09合约期价出现了低位减仓获利了结的现象,其中空平26.6%对比多平24.0%,但成交仍以空开23.4%对比多开20.2%空开为主。期货的运行趋势在昨日深跌的基础上今日符合我们的预期,出现了短暂的技术性调整的趋势。技术层面显示布林带(13、13、2)开口仍旧向下明显,并且下轨位置低点不断下探。日线级别的KD趋势不变。目前PVC基本面的变量不多,期价的走势我们仍旧维持前期的观点,中线仍旧考虑前低位置5484点位,短线的期价运行仍旧存在压力观察下轨5660位置表现。

A °é è 'recent recent host é host é í í í éé host é é ™™°™6月PVC报价下跌20美元/吨:CIF印度到岸价800美元/吨,CIF中国到岸价785美元/吨,FOB台湾离岸价740美元/吨。台塑价格公布后低于市场预期的下调幅度,或多考虑台塑的检修计划有关(6月-7月42万吨/å¹´VCM与PVC工厂计划检修)。PVC目前的供需基本面仍旧维持前期,PVC装置虽然存在部分检修以及因为亏损的问题山东部分企业装置开工负荷低位,但供应层面目前很难撼动价格的走势,需求方面的下游制品企业买跌不买涨,对于低位徘徊下的现货市场并不感兴趣,刚需采购的步伐不变。外盘方面国际油价上涨,因市场预测下半年石油需求将增加,与此同时,加拿大和OPEC+的供应在最近几周有所减少。不过,美元走强和市场等待有关债务上限磋商的消息限制了油价的涨幅。整体来看短期之内的PVC现货市场价格仍会继续低位窄幅整理。

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