According to Oil and Gas News on May 15, a recent report released by the King Abdullah Petroleum Research Center (KAPSARC) of Saudi Arabia predicted that despite economic uncertainties, by 2023, global oil consumption is expected to increase by 1.84 million barrels per day year-on-year to 101.9 million barrels per day.

This is a slight increase of 50,000 barrels per day from previous forecasts.

"While growth forecasts for the United States and Europe have been lowered, growth forecasts for Asia have been raised because of expectations that the current turmoil will subside in the second half of the year. The net demand effect is an increase of 50,000 barrels per day." KAPSARC said in the report.

The consulting think tank pointed out that demand is expected to continue to grow at a slightly higher rate in 2024, reaching 1.91 million barrels per day.

"We expect transportation fuels to drive fuel demand growth, with heavy fuels to follow if construction starts on large projects in the country. These large-scale projects and Saudi Arabia's goal of achieving 50% renewable energy and 50% natural gas power generation are part of Saudi Arabia's 2030 vision." KAPSARC added.

According to the report, oil demand in OECD member countries is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2023, while oil demand in non-OECD countries may increase by 84% this year to 154,000 barrels per day.

The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook suggests that demand growth in OECD countries will generally decline in the first two quarters of 2023, while non-OECD countries will continue to grow.

"However, in the second half of 2023, OECD countries are expected to start recovering some of their lost demand, while non-OECD countries will maintain moderate growth in the third quarter and then decline in the fourth quarter." KAPSARC added in the report.

The report further pointed out that the current uncertainty surrounding the global economy is expected to mainly affect OECD countries in 2023, with less impact on non-OECD countries.

The OECD was established in 1961 and has 38 member states, including Austria, Greece, France, Norway, the United States, Canada, etc.

The report further pointed out that a poll conducted by KAPSARC found that 87% of people believe that a global recession may occur in 2023 and that social unrest may occur if inflation persists.

On the supply side, KAPSARC said that global oil supply is expected to increase by approximately 1.97 million barrels per day in 2023, a decrease of 710,000 barrels per day from previous forecasts.

At the same time, global oil supply is expected to increase by 2.45 million barrels per day in 2024, 150,000 barrels per day higher than KAPSARC's previous forecast.