Gasoline Special Issue-20230518
109,234 
May 18, 2023, 4:44 PM
Gasoline Special issue-20230518 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20230510 |
72.56 |
76.41 |
75.96 |
75.63 |
516.6 |
-3.85 |
0.78 |
|
20230517 |
72.83 |
76.96 |
76.02 |
73.19 |
506.8 |
-4.13 |
3.77 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
0.37% |
0.72% |
0.08% |
-3.23% |
-1.90% |
7.27% |
383.33% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20230511-20230518) the wholesale price of gasoline in China was reduced in most areas, while prices were stable in some areas, including those in North China, East China, Northwest, Southwest and Northeast China, with a range of 50-250 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in South and Central China remained stable for the time being. The ex-factory prices of geo-refinery are arranged in a narrow range, among which the price reduction of gasoline in Shandong, North China, East China and Northeast China is concentrated in 30-150 yuan per ton. Central China is up-regulated, with a range of 30-60 yuan per ton, while the northwest region is sorted out within the region. The main factors of the gasoline market this week: 1, in terms of international crude oil, with the increase in market demand for crude oil and the debt ceiling in the United States, international crude oil prices fluctuated upwards; 2, downstream demand, while the terminal elimination of inventory is only rigid demand replenishment, the market activity is average. 3. From the perspective of import and export, under the dual influence of considerable profits on imports and upside-down profits on exports, China has a relatively abundant supply of resources. 4. The price limit of refined oil was reduced within the week. The maximum retail price of gasoline in China was reduced by 380 yuan per ton, and the maximum retail price of diesel was reduced by 365 yuan per ton. There are no favorable guidelines for macro policy, and the operation of operators in the market is limited.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of May 18, China's gasoline price index was 8698.55, down 96.87% from last week, down 1.10% from last week. The gasoline price index was 8991.53, down 106.7 or 1.17% from last week. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 292.99.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8600-9000 |
8560-8900 |
-40/-100 |
-0.47%/-1.11% |
|
95# |
8850-9300 |
8760-9100 |
-90/-200 |
-1.02%/-2.15% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8700-9100 |
8700-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9400 |
8900-9400 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8600-9000 |
8600-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-9200 |
8750-9200 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8600-9050 |
8500-9000 |
-100/-50 |
-1.16%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
8800-9100 |
8700-9100 |
-100/0 |
-1.14%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8500-9650 |
8500-9470 |
0/-180 |
0.00%/-1.87% |
|
95# |
8700-10450 |
8700-10030 |
0/-420 |
0.00%/-4.02% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8750-9170 |
8800-9120 |
50/-50 |
0.57%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9000-9570 |
9000-9570 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8600-8950 |
8480-8700 |
-120/-250 |
-1.40%/-2.79% |
|
95# |
8950-9400 |
8800-9150 |
-150/-250 |
-1.68%/-2.66% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8180-8500 |
8100-8450 |
-80/-50 |
-0.98%/-0.59% |
|
95# |
8280-8670 |
8200-8650 |
-80/-20 |
-0.97%/-0.23% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8280-8300 |
8250-8300 |
-30/0 |
-0.36%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8380-8400 |
8350-8400 |
-30/0 |
-0.36%/0.00% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8450-8450 |
8510-8510 |
60/60 |
0.71%/0.71% |
|
95# |
8650-8650 |
8680-8680 |
30/30 |
0.35%/0.35% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8320-8440 |
8230-8350 |
-90/-90 |
-1.08%/-1.07% |
|
95# |
8470-8590 |
8380-8500 |
-90/-90 |
-1.06%/-1.05% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8100-8400 |
8100-8400 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8200-8600 |
8200-8600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8550-8550 |
-150/-150 |
-1.72%/-1.72% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8750-8750 |
-150/-150 |
-1.69%/-1.69% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8700-8800 |
8600-8700 |
-100/-100 |
-1.15%/-1.14% |
|
95# |
9200-9250 |
9050-9150 |
-150/-100 |
-1.63%/-1.08% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8600-8700 |
8510-8650 |
-90/-50 |
-1.05%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
8950-9200 |
8800-8950 |
-150/-250 |
-1.68%/-2.72% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8950-8950 |
8650-8650 |
-300/-300 |
-3.35%/-3.35% |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8550-8700 |
8530-8700 |
-20/0 |
-0.23%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-8900 |
8730-8900 |
-20/0 |
-0.23%/0.00% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8950-9050 |
8900-9000 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9130-9400 |
9080-9350 |
-50/-50 |
-0.55%/-0.53% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8700-8750 |
8700-8700 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
8950-9050 |
8900-9000 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.55% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8650-8850 |
8550-8750 |
-100/-100 |
-1.16%/-1.13% |
|
95# |
8850-9050 |
8750-8900 |
-100/-150 |
-1.13%/-1.66% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
9000-9000 |
8800-9000 |
-200/0 |
-2.22%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9200-9200 |
9000-9200 |
-200/0 |
-2.17%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
9000-9050 |
8900-9000 |
-100/-50 |
-1.11%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9200-9250 |
9100-9200 |
-100/-50 |
-1.09%/-0.54% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8650-8900 |
0/250 |
0.00%/2.89% |
|
95# |
8850-8950 |
8850-9200 |
0/250 |
0.00%/2.79% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8750-9350 |
8650-9350 |
-100/0 |
-1.14%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-9700 |
8900-9700 |
-100/0 |
-1.11%/0.00% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8650-8650 |
-50/-50 |
-0.57%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8850-8850 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.56% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
9050-9100 |
8850-8900 |
-200/-200 |
-2.21%/-2.20% |
|
95# |
9250-9300 |
9050-9100 |
-200/-200 |
-2.16%/-2.15% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8450-8650 |
8550-8630 |
100/-20 |
1.18%/-0.23% |
|
95# |
8650-8850 |
8750-8830 |
100/-20 |
1.16%/-0.23% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8758-8820 |
8680-8700 |
-78/-120 |
-0.89%/-1.36% |
|
95# |
9050-9100 |
8800-9100 |
-250/0 |
-2.76%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8650-8895 |
8590-8745 |
-60/-150 |
-0.69%/-1.69% |
|
95# |
8850-9095 |
8790-8965 |
-60/-130 |
-0.68%/-1.43% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8720-9000 |
8640-8800 |
-80/-200 |
-0.92%/-2.22% |
|
95# |
8950-9300 |
8840-9100 |
-110/-200 |
-1.23%/-2.15% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8750-9100 |
8850-9100 |
100/0 |
1.14%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-9400 |
9100-9400 |
100/0 |
1.11%/0.00% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
8900-9050 |
8750-8900 |
-150/-150 |
-1.69%/-1.66% |
|
95# |
9100-9250 |
8950-9100 |
-150/-150 |
-1.65%/-1.62% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8700-8770 |
8700-8770 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-8970 |
8900-8970 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8750-8750 |
8500-8500 |
-250/-250 |
-2.86%/-2.86% |
|
95# |
8950-8950 |
8700-8700 |
-250/-250 |
-2.79%/-2.79% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9646-9646 |
9243-9243 |
-403/-403 |
-4.18%/-4.18% |
|
95# |
10192-10192 |
9766-9766 |
-426/-426 |
-4.18%/-4.18% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8500-9880 |
8500-9470 |
0/-410 |
0.00%/-4.15% |
|
95# |
10458-10458 |
10032-10032 |
-426/-426 |
-4.07%/-4.07% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9775-9775 |
9575-9575 |
-200/-200 |
-2.05%/-2.05% |
|
95# |
10175-10175 |
9975-9975 |
-200/-200 |
-1.97%/-1.97% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8400-9400 |
8500-9000 |
100/-400 |
1.19%/-4.26% |
|
95# |
8600-9760 |
8700-9340 |
100/-420 |
1.16%/-4.30% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9000-9000 |
8800-8800 |
-200/-200 |
-2.22%/-2.22% |
|
95# |
9400-9400 |
9200-9200 |
-200/-200 |
-2.13%/-2.13% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9075-9275 |
9020-9120 |
-55/-155 |
-0.61%/-1.67% |
|
95# |
9525-9725 |
9470-9570 |
-55/-155 |
-0.58%/-1.59% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
9050-9200 |
8900-9000 |
-150/-200 |
-1.66%/-2.17% |
|
95# |
9300-9550 |
9150-9250 |
-150/-300 |
-1.61%/-3.14% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8800-9000 |
8800-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9300 |
9100-9250 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.54% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
9000-9050 |
9000-9000 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9300-9350 |
9300-9300 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.53% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8900-9000 |
8730-8830 |
-170/-170 |
-1.91%/-1.89% |
|
95# |
9150-9350 |
9030-9100 |
-120/-250 |
-1.31%/-2.67% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8550-8550 |
-150/-150 |
-1.72%/-1.72% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8750-8750 |
-150/-150 |
-1.69%/-1.69% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8320-8440 |
8230-8350 |
-90/-90 |
-1.08%/-1.07% |
|
95# |
8470-8590 |
8380-8500 |
-90/-90 |
-1.06%/-1.05% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8450-8450 |
8510-8510 |
60/60 |
0.71%/0.71% |
|
95# |
8650-8650 |
8680-8680 |
30/30 |
0.35%/0.35% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8280-8300 |
8250-8300 |
-30/0 |
-0.36%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8380-8400 |
8350-8400 |
-30/0 |
-0.36%/0.00% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8180-8500 |
8100-8450 |
-80/-50 |
-0.98%/-0.59% |
|
95# |
8280-8670 |
8200-8650 |
-80/-20 |
-0.97%/-0.23% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.11 |
Price 5.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8100-8400 |
8100-8200 |
0/-200 |
0.00%/-2.38% |
|
95# |
8200-8550 |
8200-8350 |
0/-200 |
0.00%/-2.34% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8400-8400 |
8400-8400 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8600-8600 |
8600-8600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8500-8500 |
-150/-150 |
-1.73%/-1.73% |
V. Future forecast
From the international crude oil point of view, the summer travel peak season is approaching, the United States gasoline consumption increases, crude oil demand may be boosted. From the perspective of China's macro policy, before the implementation of the price limit of oil products, the market has consumed some of the decline, so after the price adjustment of oil products is realized, the market has not completely followed the price reduction. In addition, with the crude oil rebounding and rising, the new round of price adjustment is expected to run aground, and the news guidance is limited. In terms of demand, there are no outstanding positive factors at present, but with the rise of temperature, the frequency of vehicle air conditioners increases, and there may be some support at the retail end. From the refinery point of view, into the last ten days of the month, refinery performance pressure is increasing, do not rule out promotion operation, transaction concessions have some room for negotiation. Therefore, it is expected that China's gasoline prices will be sorted out within a narrow range in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
Luoyang Refinery and Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry were overhauled this week (20230511-20230518). The operating load of the main refinery was reduced, with a weekly operating rate of 75.64%, which was 1.00% lower than that of last week. After the maintenance of independent refineries in some areas, the operating load increased, with a weekly operating rate of 65.05%, an increase of 0.21% over last week.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.1872 million tons, China's main output is 2.2473 million tons, China's independent refineries output 939900 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 988200 tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.8493 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 430.08 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 1207.44 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 584 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit 0 yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 341 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 11, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 8, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 9, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Tianjin Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
250 |
September 5, 2023 |
October 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Rotation inspection |
2000 |
June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
Early June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 20, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Coking |
120 |
May 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
350 |
June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 2023 |
To be determined |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
June 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
May 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
July 26, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
Early May 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
100 |
March 31, 2023 |
April 15, 2023 |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |