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Introduction: since returning from the Spring Festival this year, China's urea market has become weaker and stronger, and the market change is more obviously affected by the Spring Festival holiday. Affected by the approaching holiday, the market situation is weak, the demand is stagnant, the transaction is weak, and the price is stable; after the holiday, the industry resumes work and production, agricultural demand starts, procurement follows up, the market is hot, and the price is more upstream.
Before the Spring Festival holiday, manufacturers concentrated on pre-receiving Spring Festival orders, factories reduced prices and received orders, agricultural goods were active, operators often followed up on bargains, the finished goods of industrial compound fertilizers were not good, and started to run at a low level, which reduced the enthusiasm for raw material purchase. in addition, the early maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, the industry supply is high, order shipping is affected by rain and snow weather, slow delivery, enterprise inventory increment, market transaction atmosphere weak operation. The price is under upward pressure, and the overall operation is stable.
As of February 7, 2024, China's urea small particle price index was 2257.27, down 19.59 per cent from the same period last year.
As of March 8, 2024, China's urea small particle price index was 2341.64, down 16.01 per cent from the same period last year.
As of March 7 this year, the daily output of urea in China this year was about 182000 tons, an increase of 6.92% over the same period in 2023. Since February, the early maintenance equipment has been restored one after another, and the daily production of the industry has remained high, which is higher than that of the same period of 23 years as a whole. The normal operation of enterprise equipment during the Spring Festival holiday, coupled with a small number of new parking maintenance devices, the output trend continued to rise, with the later industry equipment maintenance increment. Nissan began to decline narrowly, but the overall supply side is still loose.
Before the Spring Festival holiday, enterprises stop a small amount, the supply is ample, and the overall operation remains high; after the Spring Festival holiday, Nissan shrinks and the spot supply in the market decreases, but the overall high level continues.
As of February 7, 2024, the operating rate of China's urea industry was about 83.28%, an increase of 8.34% over the same period last year.
As of February 17, 2024, the operating rate of China's urea industry was about 87.23%, an increase of 10.18% over the same period last year.
As of March 7, 2024, the operating rate of China's urea industry was about 83.92%, up 2.62% from the same period last year.
Urea enterprises before the festival although the pre-receipt of sufficient orders, but affected by the reduction in logistics and transportation, goods delivery is blocked, most of the enterprise inventory increment; after the festival, the industry is better, enterprises have to go to the warehouse, Nissan high, enterprise inventory still maintains a high operation.
As of March 7, 2024, the inventory of enterprises in China's urea industry was 660800 tons, a decrease of 89400 tons and 11.92 percent compared with the same period last year.
Although the export policy control still exists, but driven by the export news, the market sentiment rebounded, the willingness of enterprises to gather ports increased, and urea port inventory increased.
As of March 7, 2024, the port inventory of China's urea industry was 198000 tons, an increase of 54000 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 37.50 percent over the same period last year. Among them, the inventory of large granular ports was 124000 tons, an increase of 74000 tons over the same period last year; and the inventory of small granular ports was 74000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons over the same period last year.
Factory: the new order of the factory is OK, the current order to be issued to support, some manufacturers limited to accept the order, cherish the sales mentality gradually.
Market: business sentiment to maintain a high level of shock, more wait-and-see, bullish atmosphere active.
Supply: individual enterprises parking maintenance, industry start-up high slightly decreased, but Nissan as a whole remains high.
Demand: the demand for returning to green fertilizer in agriculture still exists, and more appropriate amount of follow-up replenishment; industrial demand is stable, storage and release expectations are expected, and the overall demand is good.
