[Hot Focus]: The methanol period has now opened a "downward channel" again

Lead: Macroeconomics, cost, supply and demand and many other negative pressures have been exerted. The methanol market has once again opened a "downward channel", and the futures market has reached a new low. As of the night of May 10, the lowest price of the main methanol contract has hit a nearly two-year low. The lowest price fell to 2230.

Since mid-to-late April, the methanol market has maintained a low and volatile trend. The main contract price has been lowered from 2484 on April 21 to around 2230 on May 10. Although the price rebounded during this period, considering its own supply and demand conflicts, the overall market price has insufficient motivation to rebound and continues to maintain low and volatile.

Poor macro sentiment

Recently, due to strong concerns about overseas economic recession, coupled with the rise in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and the strengthening of the US dollar, which has put pressure on oil prices, international crude oil prices have fluctuated at low levels. Most investors in the market have obvious bearish sentiments on the market outlook. The weakening of international oil prices has suppressed the overall downturn of commodities.

The contradiction between supply and demand still exists

After entering May, most of the early spring inspection devices have gradually returned. Although there are still devices stopped for maintenance in May, the overall inspection losses may be less than that in April, and there is no obvious gap in the overall market resource supply. However, recently, a large device in Xinjiang has been parked. Market supply in some areas has decreased, which has certain support for market prices in some areas. In the port market, port inventories rebounded again this week. As of Thursday (May 11), the inventory in the port area increased to 966,000 tons. Although the delivery speed in mainstream regions is better, the speed at which imported ships arrive at the port and unload is better, making regional inventory accumulation obvious. At present, the profitability of the terminal downstream market has not been significantly improved, and with the arrival of the plum rainy season in May and June, some downstream markets may enter the off-season of consumption, and demand has limited support for methanol.

At present, many negative factors are exerting pressure simultaneously. The methanol market is weak and difficult to change, the macro sentiment is poor, the contradiction between supply and demand has not changed, and production costs are slightly loose. Many other factors have dragged down the methanol market price. Although the unexpected parking of some devices has supported the price increase in local markets, the overall market is relatively pessimistic. Most operators are not enthusiastic about entering the market to replenish goods under the influence of buying up but not buying down. On the whole, if there is no obvious positive support in the short term, it is expected that the methanol market price may continue to be weak in the short term. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the operation of equipment on site and the impact of macro aspects and other news.