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Analysis of PVC futures: On December 2, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5200, the highest price: 5206, the lowest price: 5143, the position: 942355, the settlement price: 5168, yesterday's settlement: 5203, down 35, the daily trading volume: 839421 lots, the accumulated funds: 3.404 billion, and the capital inflow: 15.5 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market continue to remain weak, and there is actually a small profit margin. Comparison of valuation: North China fell by 10 yuan/ton, East China fell by 10-30 yuan/ton, and South China fell by 30 yuan/ton. Northeast China was stable, Central China was stable, and Southwest China was stable. Some upstream PVC production companies continued to wait and see steadily, and some companies began to slightly reduce the price by 50 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the futures price weakened slightly and the low-end continued to refresh. The spot market one-off price offers were relatively weak and chaotic, and the actual transaction yielded a small profit. The futures price has an advantage in the downward low point price offers, and the basis is slightly adjusted. Among them, the basis offer in East China 01 contract-(60-110-180), contract 01 in South China-(30-70), contract 01 in northern China-(350-380), contract 01 in some sources of goods in southwest China-(610), downstream demand is poor. Although there are advantages in basis offer, no good inquiries or transactions were heard at the beginning of the week, and trading on the spot market was light.
From a futures perspective: The night price of the PVC2501 contract fell slightly at the opening, and then the low price was narrowed. There was no large fluctuation direction in early trading on Monday, and the price was still dominated by small-range fluctuations, and the same was true in the afternoon. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5,143 to 5,206, with a spread of 63. The 01 contract has increased its position by 12937 lots. As of now, 942355 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5474, with 259239 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The low point of PVC2501 contract futures continues to refresh, with the lowest point of 5143 penetrating the lower rail position, down with a small depth, and this low point became the lowest point of the year. The fluctuation range of futures prices is still relatively narrow and only 63 points throughout the day. Technical aspects show that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) is obvious downward, and the trend of dead forks of the MACD line at the daily level is expanding, with a slight increase in positions throughout the day. In terms of transactions, it was open by 25.0% compared with 24.1% more. At present, the market situation in the two markets has been mainly weak. Entering December, the market has gradually ushered in a market to shift positions and exchange for months. The market is also facing the problem of main changes. In the short term, we believe that the operation of futures prices will continue to be low. Focus on observing changes in the range of 5100-5250.
In terms of spot: In the spot market, in terms of quotations from production companies, the ex-factory price has shown a low price, and trading in the spot market has been light. Although prices have been in a continuous decline recently, downstream receiving of goods has not been active, and the spot fundamentals have remained in the previous state. Supply is stable and high, demand has been weak, and the high level of social inventories has also been a constraint on the prices of the two markets. Moreover, the current demand has entered the seasonal off-season, showing weak expectations. Currently, transactions among middlemen are light, mostly small orders. On the external side, international oil prices closed lower as Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement this week, easing concerns about crude oil supply risks. Even if OPEC+ is expected to extend its production reduction plan, the market still expects oil supply to increase in 2025. In the short term, the PVC spot market will still be mainly adjusted in a low and narrow range, and there is pressure on the market operation.
