PVC: Futures lows are refreshed, Bollinger Band opens downward, and there is a profit margin for spot orders

Analysis of PVC futures: On November 29, the opening price of the V2501 contract was 5210, the highest price was 5230, the lowest price was 5173, the position was 929418, the settlement price was 5203, yesterday's settlement was 5224, down 21, the daily trading volume was 750729 lots, the accumulated funds were 3.388 billion, and the capital outflow was 107 million.

Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton

PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price in the PVC market in China remains weak, but there is heard that there is a profit-making behavior in actual transactions. Comparison of valuations: North China is stable, the high-end and high-end region in East China is down by 40 yuan/ton, South China is down by 20 yuan/ton, Northeast China is stable, Central China is down by 30 yuan/ton, and Southwest China is stable. The prices of most upstream PVC production companies remained stable, with some companies making up for a drop of 30 yuan/ton. On Friday, although most prices were stable, few contracts were signed. Futures market trend is weak, and low prices are refreshed. During the week, the spot market offers are relatively flexible, but there is a certain bargaining space for real orders. The operating point price advantage at low futures prices is relatively obvious, and the basis difference is slightly adjusted. Among them, the basis price for East China is 01 contract-(70-130-170), South China is 01 contract-(80), Northern China is 01 contract-(350-400-450), and some sources of goods in Southwest China are leaving the factory 01 contract-(610). Although the price is profitable, the spot market transactions on Friday are not good, and downstream just need to purchase.

From a futures perspective: The night price of the PVC2501 contract fell slightly, and the price was refreshed during the week, with a low of 5173. After the beginning of early trading, it rose slightly after a narrow range, but the upward strength was insufficient, and the afternoon futures price adjusted slightly to the end. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5,173 to 5,230, with a spread of 57. The 01 contract has reduced its position by 29603 lots. As of now, 929418 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5515 lots, with 245148 lots held.

PVC market outlook forecast:

Futures: The low point of PVC2501 contract futures continues to refresh. Today's lowest point of 5173 is only 14 points away from the previous low of 5159 for the main consecutive contract. The futures price has been in a state of slight and continuous weakening recently. First, the fluctuations in the futures price are relatively narrow every day, with a small range of fluctuations. Secondly, the futures price continues to refresh in the middle and low ends of small steps, and the futures price in the Friday session The low point once again breaks through the lower track, showing a small deep downward trend. The technical closing line is still short, indicating that the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) are open downward, the MACD line at the daily level shows a dead fork trend, and the two lines of the KD line cross. We believe that the futures price will continue to operate in the short term. We will continue to be dominated by low levels and observe changes in the range of 5150-5270.

In terms of spot: As the spot market continues to weaken, its lows continue to fall. As of now, the ex-factory price in Inner Mongolia is basically in the range of 4,750 - 4,850 yuan/ton, and the reverse price in Xinjiang is relatively low. The ex-factory price is already approaching historical lows. trend. During the period of deep real estate adjustment, the overall downstream pipe and profile orders were poor. Although there was a certain demand for soft products, it was difficult to generate strong support in the weak market. Moreover, in the overall plasticized sector, PVC on the futures market has been short-allocated for the long term, and the fundamentals of PVC itself have been continuously operating in a situation of high inventory, weak demand and high inventory. Although the cultural goods index broke through slightly upward on Friday, there was insufficient support at the closing session. In the short term, the PVC spot market may still face a greater test, and it is still too early to say hoarding goods under the current period. Trading in the spot market has always been dominated by small orders, and prices may still be mainly adjusted in a low and narrow range.