PVC: Futures lows are refreshed and narrowed, spot prices are flexibly adjusted, and Formosa Plastics prices are lowered

Analysis of PVC futures: On November 26, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5265, the highest price: 5270, the lowest price: 5220, the position: 931631, the settlement price: 5245, yesterday's settlement: 5263, down 18, the daily trading volume: 729547 lots, the accumulated funds: 3.421 billion, and the outflow of funds: 19.73 million.

Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton

PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market remain weak, and the spot market operates flexibly. Comparison of valuation: Among them, the low-end of North China fell by 20 yuan/ton, East China rose by 20 yuan/ton, South China rose by 20-40 yuan/ton, Northeast China remained stable, Central China fell by 20 yuan/ton, and Southwest China remained stable. Some upstream PVC production companies continue to stabilize prices and wait and see, and some have lowered their prices by 40-50 yuan/ton. The current ex-factory price has reached the low range. The futures market continued to be organized in a low and narrow range. The offers of merchants in the spot market were relatively flexible. The morning buy-in offer was slightly lower than yesterday's. The futures price was operating at a low level. The point-to-point supply still had a price advantage. Among them, the basis offer in East China was 01 contract-(130-170), the 01 contract-(80) for South China, the 01 contract-(380-410) for some goods in the southwest was factory 01 contract-(610). Overall, in today's spot market, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, the number of urgently raising low-priced supplies in the market has decreased, and overall transactions are weak.

From a futures perspective: The night futures price of the PVC2501 contract opened high and went low, and the futures price showed a certain downward performance. The price rose slightly at the beginning of early trading, but it only recovered to near the opening price, and consolidated in a narrow range in the afternoon until the end. The 2501 contract fluctuates from 5220 to 5270 throughout the day, with a spread of 50. The 01 contract has reduced its position by 1284 lots. As of now, 931631 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5545, with 220265 lots held.

PVC market outlook forecast:

Futures: The low point of PVC2501 contract futures has been refreshed, with a low point of 5220. The fluctuation range of the futures price has not changed significantly. It is still low and relatively narrow. The technical level shows that the three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) has narrowed, and today's futures price shows a negative column with a longer lower shadow line. At present, there is insufficient movement from PVC's own fundamentals, and there is also a lack of guidance on policy ports and news, so the futures market has a small range of fluctuations in the near future. This also causes the two lines of the daily KD line to continue to cross, and in the trend of narrow fluctuations, financial market participation is insufficient. We still maintain the previous view and continue to observe the fluctuations in the low range of 5200-5320 in the short term.

In terms of spot: First of all, the fundamental news of PVC, China Taiwan Formosa Plastics PVC exports were lowered by US$10 in December. Taiwan's FOB quoted US$720. The CIF CFR price of the mainland of China was US$760. The CIF CFR price of India was US$810. The CIF CFR price of Southeast Asia was US$790. There have been no obvious changes in factors at the supply and demand level. The starting load of PVC units is relatively stable, and there is still a certain weak expectation in demand. PVC stocks are high, and most of the on-site transactions are small orders, and downstream demanders have low orders just in need of purchase. On the external front, on the 25th local time, the President-elect of the United States stated that he would impose a 25% tariff on all products entering the United States from Mexico and Canada. In addition, he also falsely claimed that a 10% tariff would be imposed on all goods imported from China. Overall, in the short term, the PVC spot market lacks enough factors to stimulate and guide, and prices will still operate at a narrow low level.