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Analysis of PVC futures: On November 25, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5236, the highest price: 5286, the lowest price: 5230, the position: 932915, the settlement price: 5263, yesterday's settlement: 5271, up 8, the daily trading volume: 743459 lots, the accumulated funds: 3.441 billion, and the outflow of funds: 130 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market continued to decline, and performed poorly at the beginning of the week. Comparison of valuation: Among them, the high-end of North China fell by 20 yuan/ton, the eastern China region was stable, the low-end of South China fell by 20 yuan/ton, and the low-end of Northeast China fell by 10 yuan/ton. Central China was stable and Southwest China was stable. Upstream PVC production companies mostly maintained stable quotations. There was no significant change from last Friday. Upstream companies had a strong wait-and-see attitude since the beginning of the week. Futures are running at a low level, and the low points are almost the same. One-price offers from merchants in the spot market are slightly downward, and the atmosphere in the market is slightly depressed. However, after the futures price is running at a low level, the spot market point-price offers have advantages. Among them, the basis offer in East China is 01 contract-(130-170), the South China is 01 contract-(80), the northern region is 01 contract-(380-410), and the southwest is 01 contract-(610). Overall, starting from the beginning of the week, actual orders were mainly sold at point-to-point prices, and some urgent requests in the market had slightly lower prices. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high.
From a futures perspective: The night price of the PVC2501 contract opened low and went high, reaching a low of 5230 at the opening, and then began to rise slightly upward. Starting from early trading, late prices were organized within a narrow range based on night trading, and the fluctuations in afternoon futures prices were still relatively narrow. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5,230 to 5,286, with a spread of 56. The 01 contract has reduced its position by 41336 lots. As of now, 932915 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5569, with 205463 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The volatility range of PVC2501 contract futures has narrowed compared with last Friday. The low point of 5230 is almost the same as last Friday. The market began to show a significant reduction in positions at the beginning of the week. In terms of transactions, the market was flat at 27.1% compared with the short flat at 23.8%. The increase in multiple flat tends to consider multiple orders to stop losses. The three-track opening of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) turns downward, the MACD line at the daily level shows a dead fork trend, and the overall technical closing line is slightly empty. As time goes by, the 01 contract begins to gradually show a month-to-month exchange market as it enters December. Currently, due to insufficient guidance from the fundamentals and news levels, we will continue to observe the fluctuations in the low range of 5200-5350 in the short term.
In terms of spot: In the near future, the two markets are not doing well, and the spot market is operating slightly weak. First of all, most of the current spot on-site transactions are mainly small orders, and merchants have feedback that it is difficult to receive large orders. Most of the downstream demand is mainly based on low-level pending orders. However, the current market futures prices correspond to the spot market. New orders are facing the problem of whether to hedge. There are certain differences in the spot market in the low range. Some believe that the current price has reached a low level, while some still hold a short attitude. At present, there are no obvious influencing factors at the supply and demand level, and the fluctuations in spot prices based on the current fundamentals are relatively narrow. On the external side, oil prices climbed to close at their highest level in two weeks, as geopolitical risks rose due to the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war. Although there is currently a lack of certain direction, the two markets are currently slightly weak. Overall, the spot market may continue to operate at low levels in the short term.
