At the Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Conference, the latest predictions of fertilizer price trends this winter and next spring are released

Source: Nongcai.com Agrochemical Collection
Phosphate fertilizer prediction: The current domestic and foreign raw material prices are at a high level, and there is no sign of price reduction; the international diammonium price will continue to remain strong and will rise to a certain extent, and there is a high probability that the first three quarters of next year will not fall sharply.Potash fertilizer prediction: There is uncertainty in China's domestic market; international prices will still rise from November to December, and prices will remain high after December, and there is a high probability that they will not drop significantly until March next year.On October 31, the 22nd Domestic High-Concentration Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Production and Marketing Conference Series Forum "Fertilizer Industry Market Analysis Forum in the Post-epidemic Period-Fertilizer Products Special Session" was held. As one of the important links of this phosphate and compound fertilizer conference, more than 400 industry representatives crowded the venue to "explore the direction of the wind" and listen to the guests' analysis and forecast on the trend and future development of chemical fertilizers in China and abroad."The price of chemical fertilizers has risen sharply since the beginning of this year. In addition to being affected by the supply and demand relationship, it is also driven by the price increase of bulk commodities." When the status of the supply and demand is different, the analysis of the supply and demand relationship tends to be biased. I suggest you keep your eyes short as much as possible. In a relatively short period of time, analyze and judge the relationship between market supply and demand, and then make the next prediction.Urea丨The high price operation situation is difficult to fundamentally reverseIn the first nine months of 2021, China’s urea exports were 4.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.09 million tons. Probably, exports in the fourth quarter fell sharply and slightly decreased throughout the year.According to Zhai Shuxin, general manager of Yunnan Yuntianhua Agricultural Materials Chain Co., Ltd., the situation of heating in winter, lack of coal and gas, and high price sares difficult to fundamentally reverse. The gas production and production shutdowns of southwest and northwest gas companies have come "on schedule", even ahead of schedule regarding the cost of urea. It is easy to increase but hard to decrease. However, the upside is controlled by the state and will not be too disjointed. Probably, the supply of urea will be tightly balanced this winter and next spring, and the fertilizer for spring farming will be guaranteed and the price will be acceptable.Internationally, India, Brazil, l and the United States, which have the largest urea imports in the world, account for 40% of the global urea imports. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the increase in demand from importing countries, the solution predicts that from November to December, the global supply of urea trade will be tight, and the market will still rise to a certain extent. After January next year, with the increase of new production capacity After the release, the supply and demand relationship changed, and the international urea gradually declined.Phosphate Fertilizer丨Raw material prices are at a high level, and there is no sign of price reduction Affected by environmental protection and cost economy, China's DAP operating rate has been maintained at 75% for a long time. Due to the implementation of the environmental protection policy of "slag-based production", the operating rate of Guizhou production areas has long been less than 70%.The current domestic and foreign raw material prices are at a high level, and there is no sign of price reduction. Jiang Hua, chairman of Wengfu International Trade Company, believes that the phosphate fertilizer market has shown a steady upward trend recently supported by raw material costs and driven by some core markets. In addition, the 13 national ministries and commissions jointly issued documents to ensure supply and price stabilization, and the General Administration of Customs issued the fertilizer legal inspection notice, which has an important impact on the fertilizer market, and there is uncertainty in the domestic market prices.Jiang Hua, Chairman of Wengfu International Trade CompanyIn the international phosphate fertilizer market, there is no new capacity on the supply side, and the current operating rate is not high; on the demand side, supported by food prices, global demand has increased overall, and global supply may continue to be tight. The solution predicts from the supply and demand relationship that from the end of November to December, the international price of diammonium will continue to remain strong and will rise to a certain extent.Likely,t the first three quarters of next year will not fall sharply.Potash fertilizer丨international prices will continue to rise, China's memory uncertaintyAffected by the international potash fertilizer market, China's domestic white potassium prices have continued to rise since the beginning of the year. They have risen sharply during the off-season in the second and third quarters. Recently, they have fallen rationally under the guidance of national macro-control. Yang Guomin, manager of the raw material fertilizer division of China Agricultural Holdings, said that changes in domestic potash fertilizers need to focus on the international market, domestic demand and social inventory, and national macro-control policies.At present, five rounds of bidding for reserve potash fertilizer have been carried out, and many companies have won the bid. In a market with tight cargo prices, the transaction price of potash fertilizer at RMB 3,000/ton was significantly lower than the spot market price. After the compound fertilizer enterprise wins the bid, there will be at least two months of production and distribution time, which will play a guiding role in ensuring supply and price stability for spring and summer cropping next year.In the international market, Russia, Bela, and other countries will add more than 4 million tons of potash fertilizer production capacity next year, but at the same time, the demand for potash fertilizer in Brazil, the United States, and Southeast Asia will continue to increase. From the perspective of supply and demand, Jiefang predicts that international potash fertilizer prices will still rise from November to December, and after December, prices will remain high until March next year.