Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis and Forecast

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Market Price Analysis:

This month, the domestic MAP market experienced sustained bullish sentiment, with continuous price increases and good order reception by enterprises.

According to Fertoduo data, as of May 27, 2024:

• The 55% powdered MAP price index was 3062.50, an increase of 181.25 from the beginning of the month, a 6.29% rise.
• The 55% granular MAP price index was 3080.00, an increase of 30.00 from the beginning of the month, a 0.98% rise.
• The 58% powdered MAP price index was 3333.33, an increase of 83.33 from the beginning of the month, a 2.56% rise.

First Half of the Month:

• Downstream compound fertilizer factories increased operations but had insufficient stock, leading to just-in-time replenishment of raw materials.
• Market transactions showed improvement due to tight spot supply and increased seller confidence.
• Transaction focus continued to shift upwards, with low-priced goods exiting the market.

Second Half of the Month:

• Market transactions remained strong, with continuous upward pressure on prices.
• Demand from downstream compound fertilizer factories persisted, leading to ongoing procurement.
• Although supply gradually improved and prices increased, buying interest decreased.
• Raw material prices declined, leading to a cautious market sentiment and stable quotes supported by pending orders.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Market Price Analysis:

This month, domestic DAP prices remained stable with slight declines, reflecting a weak transaction atmosphere.

According to Fertoduo data, as of May 27, 2024:

• The 64% granular DAP price index was 3770.00, a decrease of 61.67 from the beginning of the month, a 1.61% drop.
• The 60% brown DAP price index remained stable at 3450.00.
• The 57% DAP price index was 3362.50, a decrease of 102.50 from the beginning of the month, a 2.96% drop.

First Half of the Month:

• DAP enterprises primarily fulfilled domestic pre-orders and export orders.
• Increased supply led to higher inventories, while export prices fell slightly.
• The market saw limited new orders and weak transaction activity, with stable quotes supported by pending orders.

Second Half of the Month:

• Corn fertilizer demand waned, with limited just-in-time procurement.
• The market maintained a weak transaction atmosphere, with increased inventory pressure and declining quotes.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Forecast

Raw Materials:

• Phosphate Rock: Tight supply and environmental inspections led to reduced shipments and stable prices. The market is expected to remain stable next month.
• Synthetic Ammonia: Prices fluctuated, initially rising due to supply issues and then declining with improved supply. Prices are expected to decrease next month.
• Sulfur: Prices declined slightly due to weak downstream demand. The market is expected to continue weak adjustments next month.

Supply and Demand:

• Supply: MAP production operated at low levels, while DAP production saw gradual increases.
• Demand: Summer fertilizer demand is ending, with limited corn fertilizer demand. Industrial just-in-time procurement for MAP continued, but overall demand is expected to weaken next month.

Overall: With weakened upstream cost support and limited just-in-time procurement, supply is expected to increase. The phosphate fertilizer market is expected to experience weak consolidation with minor price fluctuations next month.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operational Rates

MAP:

• As of May 27, 2024, the operating rate was 51.09%, up 7.94% from last month and 15.52% year-on-year.

DAP:

• As of May 27, 2024, the operating rate was 52.52%, down 3.89% from last month but up 6.02% year-on-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Production Trends

MAP:

• As of May 27, 2024, production was 847,200 tons, up 6.15% from last month and 44.13% year-on-year.

DAP:

• As of May 27, 2024, production was 1,109,200 tons, down 4.38% from last month but up 20.17% year-on-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Import and Export Data

MAP Exports:

• In April 2024, exports were 209,700 tons, up 58,804.49% month-on-month and 54.76% year-on-year.
• The average export price was $519.86/ton.
• Cumulative exports for January-April 2024 were 309,300 tons, down 53.81% year-on-year.

MAP Imports:

• In April 2024, imports were 8,064.08 tons, up 753.12% month-on-month and 2,687,925.00% year-on-year.
• The average import price was $362.21/ton.
• Cumulative imports for January-April 2024 were 10,181.67 tons, up 10,030.01% year-on-year.

DAP Exports:

• In April 2024, exports were 399,800 tons, up 1,428.30% month-on-month and 20.23% year-on-year.
• The average export price was $558.78/ton.
• Cumulative exports for January-April 2024 were 541,300 tons, down 43.96% year-on-year.

DAP Imports:

• In April 2024, imports were 175.00 tons, up 173,169.31% month-on-month and 58,234.00% year-on-year.
• Cumulative imports for January-April 2024 were 215.81 tons, up 952.71% year-on-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Apparent Consumption Data

MAP:

• In April 2024, apparent consumption was 584,100 tons, down 46.61% month-on-month and up 23.56% year-on-year.
• Cumulative apparent consumption for January-April 2024 was 3,212,700 tons, up 17.47% year-on-year.

DAP:

• In April 2024, apparent consumption was 1,160,000 tons, down 38.70% month-on-month and down 4.66% year-on-year.
• Cumulative apparent consumption for January-April 2024 was 4,225,500 tons, up 20.59% year-on-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

MAP:

• As of May 27, 2024, port inventory was 75,000 tons, down 33.63% month-on-month and 44.03% year-on-year.

DAP:

• As of May 27, 2024, port inventory was 76,000 tons, down 40.16% month-on-month and 56.35% year-on-year.