Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Weakened Cost Support, Market Weakly Consolidating

June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM

Feidoodoo

1100

On May 21, the MAP price index for 55% powdered and 58% powdered MAP rose, while the 55% granular index remained stable. MAP market prices slightly increased due to strong support from pending orders despite bearish pressure from increased supply and declining raw material costs. In contrast, the DAP market saw price declines, with limited new orders and a cautious market atmosphere. Demand for summer fertilizer is winding down, leading to weak market consolidation and minimal just-in-time orders. Raw material prices for sulfur and phosphate rock are stable with slight declines, weakening cost support. In the short term, MAP prices are expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations, while DAP prices are likely to continue their downward trend.

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on May 21:

The domestic MAP 55% powdered index rose to 3006.25.
The 55% granular index remained stable at 3080.00.
The 58% powdered index increased to 3333.33.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic MAP market prices continued to rise slightly. On the enterprise side, pending orders still provide support, leading many companies to stop accepting new orders and suspend quotations, maintaining a firm stance supported by pending orders. On the market side, the bullish atmosphere persists with firm trader sentiments. Recently, an increase in industry supply has exerted some bearish pressure on the market. On the demand side, agricultural summer fertilizer usage is in the late stages, with localized just-in-time demand still present but slowing down. Regarding raw materials, the transaction focus for sulfur and phosphate rock has shifted downward, and the synthetic ammonia market is undergoing downward adjustments, leading to a slight decline in costs. Overall, while there are bearish factors from the cost and supply sides, pending orders continue to provide support, allowing the market to remain firm for a while. In the short term, MAP market prices are expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on May 21:

The domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index fell to 3776.67.
The 60% brown DAP index remained stable at 3450.00.
The 57% DAP index decreased to 3387.50.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, domestic DAP market prices experienced slight declines. On the enterprise side, new orders are limited, with a current focus on shipments and no new prices issued. Actual transactions are mostly negotiated case-by-case. On the market side, recent arrivals have decreased compared to earlier periods, leading to weak consolidation in the market. Traders have low expectations for the future, leading to cautious observation and a dull trading atmosphere. On the demand side, the market transaction atmosphere remains flat, with summer fertilizer usage winding down and minimal just-in-time orders for corn fertilizer. Domestic demand is primarily driven by just-in-time orders. Regarding raw materials, prices for sulfur and phosphate rock are stable with slight declines, and the synthetic ammonia market is undergoing downward adjustments, leading to weakened cost support. Overall, the DAP market remains weakly consolidating, with insufficient demand follow-up and weakened cost support, and prices are expected to continue their downward trend in the short term.