Urea Daily Review: Continuous Fermentation of Export News Enhances Trading Atmosphere in the Market
Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to data from Feidoodoo, the price index for small urea granules on April 18th is 2238.00, an increase of 21.77 from yesterday, a rise of 0.98% from the previous month, and a decrease of 12.09% from the previous year.
Urea Futures Market:
Today's urea UR409 contract opened in 2050, with the highest price in 2093, the lowest in 2030, the settlement price in 2062, and the closing price in 2036. The closing price increased by 32 compared to the previous trading day, a month-on-month increase of 1.60%, with the day's fluctuation range between 2030-2093; The September contract in Shandong has a basis of 164; The September contract decreased by 20809 hands today, with current holdings at 242337 hands.
Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market prices rose, boosted by the fermentation of export news, with a noticeable increase in new orders for manufacturers, pulling the market higher, and factory quotes were adjusted upwards accordingly.
Specifically, prices in the Northeast region rose to 2200-2260 yuan/ton. In the East China region, prices increased to 2160-2240 yuan/ton. In Central China, small granule prices rose to 2200-2300 yuan/ton, and large granule prices to 2190-2220 yuan/ton. Prices in North China increased to 2060-2250 yuan/ton. In South China, prices rose to 2310-2370 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained stable at 2140-2150 yuan/ton. In the Southwest region, prices increased to 2170-2500 yuan/ton.
Factory Perspective:
Manufacturers continue to execute previous pre-orders, with sufficient orders and new orders being followed up. With large granule shipments performing well, enterprise stocks are at a low level, and with multiple positive factors overlapping today's factory quotes were mostly adjusted upward. In terms of the market, market sentiment fluctuates away from the supply and demand fundamentals. To ensure domestic supply, export regulation measures are expected to be introduced soon, with a bullish market atmosphere, market trends rebounding, and a good short-term outlook. On the supply side, daily production and inventory continue to show a declining trend, with maintenance plans continuing at the end of the month, but some previously halted facilities are expected to resume production by the end of the month, leading to stable yet fluctuating supply adjustments. On the demand side, downstream rigid demand continues to advance, influenced by market news, with signs of follow-up purchases, but the sentiment remains cautious, with many waiting for further market guidance.
Overall Perspective:
Currently, the urea market is warming up due to sufficient pending orders, low inventory, device maintenance, and continuous fermentation of export news, leading to an optimistic market atmosphere. Urea prices are expected to rise and adjust in the short term.
