Daily Urea Review: Market Sales Volume Decreases, Quotations Hold Steady Under the Support of Pending Shipments
Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to data estimated by Feidoodoo, on April 10, the urea small particle price index was 2150.59, remaining stable compared to the previous day, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.88%.
Urea Futures Market:
Today's urea UR409 contract opened in 1860, reached a high in 1909, a low in 1860, settled in 1888, and closed in 1907. The closing price increased by 53 compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, marking an increase of 2.86% with a daily fluctuation range of 1860-1909. The 05 contract's basis in the Shandong area is 173; the 05 contract saw an increase of 15268 positions today, with total positions now at 251466.
Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market prices stabilized, with manufacturers reporting significantly fewer new orders compared to recent days, and most current quotations remaining steady.
Specifically, prices in the Northeast region stabilized at 2120-2210 RMB/ton. In the East China region, prices stabilized at 2060-2130 RMB/ton. In the Central China region, small and medium particle prices dropped to 2060-2300 RMB/ton, and large particle prices dropped to 2120-2200 RMB/ton. Prices in the North China region stabilized at 1950-2160 RMB/ton. In the South China region, prices stabilized at 2220-2260 RMB/ton. Prices in the Northwest region stabilized at 2090-2100 RMB/ton. In the Southwest region, prices stabilized at 2070-2450 RMB/ton.
From the manufacturing side, recent market transactions have declined compared to previous days, with downstream follow-up not meeting expectations. With the support of pending orders, manufacturers held their quotations firm and stable, showing no willingness to lower prices. Some enterprises continued to adjust their prices upwards, though the overall magnitude was small. Regarding the market, the trading atmosphere weakened as prices rose, compounded by international news affecting the domestic market atmosphere, leading traders to adopt a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with the market maintaining stability with minor fluctuations. On the supply side, daily production in the industry has slightly decreased, with expectations of further decreases as facilities undergo maintenance this month, resulting in a slight decrease in operation rates. Regarding demand, purchases are cautious, with insufficient motivation to follow price increases. Although sales to downstream compound fertilizer factories have improved in some areas, the focus has been on high-nitrogen fertilizers. With several facilities reducing production and a decline in industry operations, urea purchasing has been poor, maintaining only minimal demand-driven follow-up.
In summary, the current urea market has seen a decrease in sales volume compared to previous days, with quotations remaining firm under the support of pending shipments and some enterprises halting maintenance. With the market atmosphere weakening, urea market prices are expected to adjust downward in a stable yet weak manner in the short term.
