What is the speed and amplitude of the downward trend of the compound fertilizer as the wind changes?
The autumn market for compound fertilizers has progressed more than half, and the decline in raw materials has increased the wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Some new orders have already been loosened from the previous high. The market mentality is not optimistic, and compound fertilizers are once again in a passive position. What will happen in the later period?
When will the price of raw materials stop falling and where is the low point?
Urea
The expected benefits of urea have not yet appeared. The fourth set of new urea production capacity was put into production during the year. There were many short-term negatives and lack of market confidence. Continue to pay attention to on-site equipment maintenance and the release of printed labels. Long-term prices are difficult to predict, and short-term downsides are mainly
Synthetic ammonia
The price of synthetic ammonia in the main producing areas continues to decline, the supply and demand side is empty, and the transaction atmosphere is weak
Monoammonium Phosphate
Monoammonium phosphate is running at a stalemate, new orders are sluggish, and the transaction price is chaotic. The current stock of raw material sulfur is soaring, and other raw materials are supported by high costs. The company's quotation is temporarily firm, and the market price is loosening.
Potassium Chloride
The regional price of potassium chloride is rather chaotic. The current price of 62% white potassium in border trade is mostly 3500-3550 yuan/ton, but it is reported that the new monthly order has not been signed, lacking demand and mental support, and the price is still falling.
The trend of main raw materials is still consolidating downwards. Once the market opens a downward channel, the mentality is often difficult to support, and it is difficult to trade new orders due to buying up and not buying down. Since the market price in the early stage has risen to historical highs, it is difficult to predict the low point of this wave. The industry is mostly following the market.
Autumn fertilizer continues to advance, new orders have been loosened
August-September is still the concentrated delivery period of wheat fertilizer. There is a rigid demand in the market, and the overall arrival volume in each region is only about 50%, and the spot inventory of compound fertilizer companies is at a low level, and the social inventory is not high, so Short-term supply shortages can still occur. At present, it is the changes in the price trend of raw materials that affect the most progress. Compound fertilizer is greatly affected by cost factors and lacks cost support. The overall mentality of the market has also undergone a major change. Large-scale enterprises consider pre-orders, most of which are mainly price-based, but some new orders have been loosened, and the range is Around 50 yuan/ton. Now refer to part of the factory 45% S (14:16:15/3*15) at 3150-3450 yuan/ton, 45% CL (3*15) at 2950-3200 yuan/ton, and 45 content wheat fertilizer at 2950-3200 Yuan / ton.
Under the influence of multiple factors, it is a reasonable expectation that compound fertilizer will decline. Considering the attributes of compound fertilizer products, and the supply and demand in the second quarter is not loose, the downward range and speed will be limited.
