Urea Daily Review: Supported by Pending Factory Orders, Immediate Demand Persists
Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to data calculated by Feidoodoo, on March 6th, the price index for small particle urea was 2350.27, an increase of 0.91 from the previous day, representing a 0.04% rise on a day-to-day basis and a 15.62% decline year-on-year.
Urea Futures Market:
Today, the opening price for the urea UR405 contract was 2194, with the highest at 2210, the lowest at 2182, the settlement price at 2196, and the closing price at 2200. The closing price decreased by 14 compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, marking a 0.63% fall, with the day's fluctuation range between 2182-2210. The basis for the May contract in the Shandong area was 90. Today, the May contract saw a reduction of 6251 hands, with the current position at 175082 hands.
Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market prices experienced a stable to slight increase, supported by pending orders from some factories and the continued presence of immediate demand in the market, leading to a continued adjustment in quotations.
Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2330-2390 RMB/ton. In the North China region, prices were stable at 2170-2410 RMB/ton. In the East China region, prices remained stable at 2270-2320 RMB/ton. In the South China region, prices were stable at 2380-2450 RMB/ton. In the Central China region, prices for small and medium particles rose to 2280-2400 RMB/ton, while large particles remained stable at 2340-2400 RMB/ton. In the Northwest region, prices were stable at 2310-2320 RMB/ton. Prices in the Southwest region remained stable at 2300-2600 RMB/ton.
Market Forecast:
From the factory perspective, new order transactions are satisfactory, with some factories continuing to increase their quotations, leading to a slight upward shift in the market's transaction center. Currently, most mainstream regional factories are supported by a certain volume of pending orders, allowing for smooth shipments. Influenced by export news, new order transactions remain satisfactory on the market side, with the current market transaction center experiencing a slight lift. However, transactions have slowed slightly after the increase, leading to a slight easing in the market. On the supply side, individual enterprises have halted operations for maintenance, causing a slight decrease in daily production, but supply remains ample. In terms of demand, the need for agricultural fertilization continues, with periodic restocking currently underway. Industrial demand is also on the rise, as the operating rates for downstream compound fertilizer factories and the board industry increase, leading to relatively active purchasing, indicating the persistence of immediate demand.
In summary, with the support of pending orders from urea enterprises and the continued presence of immediate demand, urea market prices are expected to continue a slight range-bound adjustment in the short term.
