International urea is generally strong, but there have been some signs of weakness
The international urea market remained strong this week, but there have been some signs of weakness. India's RCF bid again this week, the closing time is July 22, which will once again test the market's ability to supply.
Buyers in the UK and France are establishing limited positions for the next season's urea, and poor crop economic conditions are considered a hidden danger. With the passage of time, the impact of delayed or even loss of demand will increase, and the tight supply and demand situation may be relieved.
From last weekend to the beginning of this week, urea prices continued to rise strongly. Due to the inversion of prices in the region in the early stage, the southeast coast has not received many goods. The current price is weak and stable, and there is no obvious impact for the time being. In terms of supply, the Shanxi plant has resumed, but due to heavy rains, some railways have collapsed and the railway shipments have declined. The arrival of goods in Jiangsu, Anhui, and Hubei Lakes has been affected to some extent. The factories in the Northeast region have entered the maintenance season, and some short-term shutdowns in the early period have resumed. In terms of demand, after the price correction last week, compound fertilizer factories concentrated on purchasing raw materials for autumn production, but the volume was not large, mainly to meet short-term production needs. After the price rebounded to the previous high, the purchasing enthusiasm fell again. The agricultural demand in the south is fair, and top-dressing in Xinjiang is in progress. The delivery of goods in the region is tight, and there is no short-term sales demand outside Xinjiang. India announced a new round of bidding, and domestic factories have successively received a certain number of orders from the port.
Regarding coal, there has not been a significant increase in upstream operations. The country released coal reserves this week to increase coal supply and stabilize prices. Probably, coal prices should remain stable in the short term. Due to the extremely low level of social inventories and the inelasticity of the supply chain, the transmission of demand changes to the upstream has become more sensitive, resulting in a relatively high level of price fluctuations. Probably next week, Xinjiang's supply of goods will still be digested in the region, and factories in the North China region may face certain pressure. After the price of the printed label is released, it will form a new guideline for market trends. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, there is no major change in the comparison. Under the situation of double decline in supply and demand, the market will probably continue to consolidate next week.
