Monoammonium enters the plateau period, will the price increase continue
It is reported that urea has declined during the holiday period. In recent days, there have been partial declines and rebounds. There are many changes, but the changes in monoammonium are not great. Some companies that return after the holiday have temporarily entered the ranks of not quoting, and they have a strong wait-and-see attitude. The ex-factory quotations of 55% powdered ammonium from companies with quotations are mostly above 3,000 yuan (the same below the ton price), and the high-end is reported to be 3200 yuan. However, it is reported that there are not many transactions above 3,000 yuan, and the transaction speed has slowed down. The market situation after the holiday gives the industry a feeling that monoammonium is not going to rise, and entering a plateau period, will the price increase of monoammonium continue? What is the specific situation after the holiday? The author's analysis is as follows:
International demand is still strong, and domestic mono ammonium demand is gradually heating up. Although the demand seems to slow down after the holiday, the demand has gradually become prominent during the autumn fertilizer raw material procurement season. The industry claims that the recent phase and the operation of the monoammonium plant are mostly downstream complexes. Fertilizer companies and large traders have reduced their operations after the mono ammonium has risen to more than 3,000 yuan. Small and medium-sized traders believe that the increase in mono ammonium is too large and too fast, so they dare not blindly follow up. The overall demand for monoammonium does not seem to be as good as before. However, there is still rigid demand in autumn, and monoammonium may continue to rise.
Moreover, most of the ammonium phosphate manufacturers have received international orders, and the implementation period will be until the end of October at the latest. The monoammonium companies are currently mainly supplying export orders, which has aggravated the shortage of domestic monoammonium supply. Domestic companies have limited ability to accept orders and place orders. Only for old customers mono ammoniumm control or suspension of orders, it is normal for some companies to suspend quotation,and short-termm supply off monooammoniumm will still be tight. The overall operating rate of monoammonium is still not high. Near 50%, the operating rate of monoammonium in Hubei, the main production area, is less than 50%. Largefactoriesaree still operatingg, and some companies still have temporary maintenance.
It can be seen that the supply and demand of mono ammoniumm are indeed tight, and the compound fertilizer plants have been purchasing at the price. It is reported that the autumn purchases of the large plants in Shandong, Hena,n and other places have been around mid-to-early September, and they have been replenishing orders and there are no large orders, but they are worth it. The focus is on small and medium-sized compound fertilizer companies. They did not reserve a large amount of raw materials for autumn in the early stage. The overall operating rate in the recent stage is not high. They take reasons for not taking orders for high-priced raw materials such as production suspension and maintenance. However, as the actual demand for autumn fertilizer gradually increases This highlights that it is bound to raise the price of raw materials nitroge , phosphorus ,,s and potassium again, which may cause some companies to be eliminated by the industry, but by then small and medium-sized compound fertilizer companies may have to accept high-priced raw materials, thereby increasing purchases. Before the holiday, a few companies issued new prices for compound fertilizers with higher prices. The downstream procurement demand has not yet been apparent. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to whether there are uncertainties brought about by the guidance of macro national policies in the recent stage.
It is reported that Yunnan has gradually liberalized its electricity restriction policy. With the gradual resumption of production of enterprises, the supply of monoammonium raw material sulfuric acid will be restored, and the pressure on monoammonium enterprises will also be relieved to a certain extent. Sulfur prices have been stable and fluctuating recently. International sulfur prices have somewhat loosened, but there is no possibility of substantial price cuts. There will still be a certain degree of support for the cost of monoammonium in the short term.
To sum up , although th themonoammoniumm market has entered a plateau in the recent stage, with the gradual start of autumn fertilizer and better export demand, thereis stilll certain demandd forammoniumm in the later stage. In addition, the supply is tight, and the raw material cost support is acceptable .Inch mono ammonium,m The quotation may still rise steadily.
Source: China Fertilizer Network
