Urea Daily Review: Enterprise Pending Orders Decrease, Market Prices Decline Widely
Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo Index data, on December 25th, the small particle urea price index was 2455.59, down 18.95 from last Friday, a decrease of 0.77% week-on-week, and down 12.14% year-on-year.
Urea Futures Market:
Today, the urea UR405 contract opened at 2119, with a high of 2119 and a low of 2074. The settlement price was 2092, and the closing price was 2079, down 87 from the previous trading day's settlement price, a decrease of 4.02%. The daily fluctuation range was 2074-2119; the Shandong area basis for the 05 contract was 301; the 05 contract increased its position by 26,218 hands today, with current holdings at 184,100 hands.
Spot Market Analysis:
Today, domestic urea market prices noticeably decreased, with enterprises across regions showing a clear willingness to accept orders. Overall quotations trended downwards, with reductions ranging from 10-50 yuan/ton.
Specifically, in the Northeast region, prices fell to 2450-2510 yuan/ton. In the North China region, prices fell to 2220-2510 yuan/ton. In the Northwest region, prices remained stable at 2410-2420 yuan/ton. In the Southwest region, prices remained stable at 2450-2800 yuan/ton. In the East China region, prices fell to 2350-2410 yuan/ton. In the Central China region, prices for small and medium particles fell to 2340-2580 yuan/ton, and large particles to 2410-2500 yuan/ton. In the South China region, prices fell to 2510-2550 yuan/ton.
Market Forecast:
On the factory side, enterprises have a small number of pending orders supporting them, with pending orders gradually decreasing. Some mainstream regional enterprises noticeably reduced prices to receive orders, but actual order volumes were limited. On the market side, after a round of price reductions, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm did not significantly increase, and the current market atmosphere remains subdued. On the supply side, recent stoppages by gas-head enterprises have continuously reduced market supply. Although there is some positive support on the supply side, it has not significantly impacted the slow pace of market purchasing, with downstream following up in small quantities. On the demand side, overall demand remains relatively limited, with downstream factories following up in small amounts and maintaining a cautious and watchful attitude.
In summary, the current urea market lacks clear factors for a price increase, with downstream sentiment remaining cautious and watchful. It is expected that in the short term, urea market prices will continue to stabilize with a downward adjustment.
