Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Market Scarcity Continues, Phosphate Fertilizer Prices Explore High Levels

June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM

Feidoodoo

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The phosphate fertilizer market continued to experience scarcity this week, with prices for both monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) trending upwards. The MAP market saw an increase in both powder and granule prices, with a firm upward trend in prices due to limited supply, high demand, and cautious buyer sentiment. The DAP market also witnessed rising prices, influenced by limited supplies and strong cost support from raw materials. The operating rates for both MAP and DAP industries saw an increase compared to last year, with weekly production also showing an upward trend. Port inventories for both MAP and DAP decreased compared to last year. The market outlook suggests continued high prices for both MAP and DAP due to tight supplies and strong demand.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis:

Price Analysis:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): According to Feidoodoo Index data: This week, the average price index for 55% powder was 3445.00, up 166.25 from last week, a 5.07% increase week-on-week; the average price index for 55% granules was 3280.00, up 460.00, a 16.31% increase week-on-week; the average price index for 58% powder was 3576.67, up 106.00, a 3.05% increase week-on-week.

This week, the MAP market prices continued their firm upward trend. On the factory side, major manufacturers remained in a state of not accepting new orders, with no new prices announced and a large volume of pending shipments, mainly from previous pre-received orders, with no intention to accept new orders in the short term. Some smaller factories accepted orders in limited quantities, continuously raising prices, with a strong bullish market sentiment. Factory prices were continuously adjusted upwards. In terms of supply, the operating rate of the MAP industry declined, with daily production continuing at a low level. The upcoming December mining break for upstream phosphate rock means that the shortage of supplies continues, and traders hold limited stocks, mostly hoarding and reluctant to sell, making it difficult to find low-priced goods in the market. On the demand side, the downstream need-gap persists. There is still inquiry and purchasing demand from downstream and traders, but influenced by high prices, the mindset is gradually becoming more rational and cautious.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): According to Feidoodoo Index data: This week, the average price index for 64% granules was 3871.67, up 64.33 from last week, a 1.69% increase week-on-week; the average price index for 60% brown was 3670.00, up 170.00, a 4.86% increase week-on-week; the average price index for 57% DAP was 3550.00, up 85.00, a 2.45% increase week-on-week.

This week, the DAP market atmosphere improved, with prices continuously rising. On the enterprise side, since late October, domestic orders have been mostly shipped, with not much stock left with the holders. Expecting a positive future market, many are hoarding and reluctant to sell, making it difficult to find supplies in the market. In terms of supply, the number of plant shutdowns for maintenance continued to increase, reducing supply. Plants in operation mainly executed export orders, with no domestic sales currently, leading to a market shortage. On the demand side, the autumn wheat fertilization season has been delayed, with some immediate needs being met. Additionally, the industrial demand in the Northeast market remains active, driving up transaction prices, and the demand side looks positive. Regarding raw materials, the tight supply situation of raw phosphate rock shows no signs of easing, with prices remaining high, and sulfur and synthetic ammonia prices slightly increasing, providing strong cost support.

Future Market Predictions:
Monoammonium Phosphate: Currently, MAP factories have a large volume of pending shipments, and supplies are becoming tight. With traders holding a reluctant-to-sell mindset, market circulation is limited, leading to an upward price trend. Overall, it is expected that MAP market prices will continue to explore higher levels next week.

Diammonium Phosphate: Currently, the domestic DAP market is experiencing a tight supply, with limited available stock, and the continued tight supply of phosphate rock, keeping prices high. Overall, it is expected that DAP market prices will continue to operate at high levels next week.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operation:

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Industry Operation:

This week, the domestic MAP industry's operating rate was about 58.02%, up 3.76% from last week, and up 17.12% year-on-year. The MAP industry's operating rate increased slightly this week, remaining higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Industry Operation:

This week, the domestic DAP industry's operating rate was about 49.81%, up 2.64% from last week, and up 10.39% year-on-year. The DAP industry's operating rate increased slightly this week, remaining higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trends:

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Weekly Production Trend:

This week, domestic MAP production was about 226,600 tons, up 6.94% from last week, and up 40.40% year-on-year. Domestic MAP weekly production increased this week, remaining higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Weekly Production Trend:

This week, domestic DAP production was about 250,300 tons, up 5.61% from last week, and up 27.57% year-on-year. Domestic DAP weekly production increased slightly this week, remaining higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends:

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Port Inventory Trend:

This week, the main port inventory for domestic MAP was about 45,100 tons, down 15.07% from last week, and down 70.70% year-on-year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Port Inventory Trend:

This week, the main port inventory for domestic DAP was about 212,100 tons, remaining the same as last week, but down 7.14% year-on-year.