Translation: Urea Daily Review: The marking price remains high in India, domestic market prices are generally increased.
Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to the data calculated by Feidoodoo, the urea small particle price index was 2530.73 on October 23, an increase of 39.68 compared to last Friday, an increase of 1.59% month-on-month, and a decrease of 0.54% year-on-year.
Urea Futures Market:
Today's urea UR2401 contract opening price: 2265, highest price: 2268, lowest price: 2186, settlement price: 2215, closing price: 2209, the closing price is 65 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.86%. The fluctuation range throughout the day was 2186-2268, with a price difference of 82. The 01 contract reduced its position by 34,503 hands today, with a current position of 329,528 hands.
Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market prices continue to rise. Influenced by the high marking price in India, most manufacturers' factory quotations are firm and upward. Currently, there is a stronger sentiment of resistance to high prices downstream.
Specifically, the price in the Northeast region increased to 2460-2550 yuan/ton. In North China, the price was adjusted to 2370-2530 yuan/ton. The price in the Northwest region was adjusted to 2470-2480 yuan/ton. The price in the Southwest region remained stable at 2380-2800 yuan/ton. The price in East China was adjusted to 2500-2550 yuan/ton. In Central China, the price of small and medium particles increased to 2450-2690 yuan/ton, and large particles increased to 2530-2690 yuan/ton. The price in South China was adjusted to 2600-2660 yuan/ton.
Market Forecast:
In terms of supply, there are factories expected to resume production this week. Daily production will continue to rise steadily, and the output is expected to be higher than last week. From the manufacturer's perspective, there were many orders earlier, and the number of orders has increased. Currently, there is no pressure to ship, and the pending orders can be maintained for about a week. In terms of inventory, some factories have low inventory and intend to slightly accumulate stock. Currently, they control order intake. In terms of demand, the agricultural demand market has entered the winter storage stage, and most of them buy at a low price. The industrial market's compound fertilizer start-up rate has fallen, and the demand is currently low. The market purchases a small amount as needed. In terms of cost, raw material prices are relatively stable, and the cost side is mainly being adjusted. Regarding marking, the results of a new round of marking will be announced this week. The minimum bid price is still higher than the current mainstream market quotation in the domestic market, and international prices support the positive trend. However, there are rumors in the news that some companies have suspended exports, and there is a possibility of a return flow of large-particle urea at the port, which may suppress the short-term upward space of the market.
In summary, the current urea market is supported by positive marking, the supply continues to increase, and the demand is mainly for reserves. In addition, companies intend to accumulate inventory. It is expected that there is still room for an increase in urea market prices, and there may be a slowdown in procurement later, and the rate of increase may be reduced.
