Urea Daily Review: Market Necessities Gradually Weaken, Prices Continue to Adjust Downwards
Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo data, the urea small granule price index on October 8 was 2498.18, a decrease of 24.82 from yesterday, down 0.98% MoM, and down 2.81% YoY.
Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market price continues to adjust downwards. Currently, the downstream replenishment willingness for the current factory quotation is not strong, preferring to wait for a lower price before entering the market. Companies are, therefore, reluctantly adjusting their quotations downwards.
Specifically, the price in the Northeast region has been adjusted to 2510-2560 yuan/ton. In the North China region, it's 2280-2520 yuan/ton. For the Northwest region, it's 2450-2460 yuan/ton. Southwest region prices have been adjusted to 2350-2800 yuan/ton. In the East China region, prices fell to 2400-2450 yuan/ton. In Central China, small granule prices dropped to 2390-2660 yuan/ton, while large granule prices remained stable at 2470-2510 yuan/ton. The South China region saw a decline to 2540-2650 yuan/ton.
Market Forecast:
Supply-wise, daily production is still gradually recovering, ensuring a market supply that is maintained at a relatively abundant state. On the company side, businesses continue to fulfill pre-holiday pre-orders, with the overall shipment volume gradually decreasing. Given the current market situation, there's still pressure on companies to receive orders. In terms of demand, necessities are becoming weaker, with the downstream procurement enthusiasm remaining low. Many are waiting for a price drop before purchasing, adopting a wait-and-see attitude. On the export front, domestic regulations continue to be stringent, limiting exports. As for the Indian bidding, although it did not influence the domestic urea price in this round, the overall market holds an opportunistic mentality, which has intensified the wait-and-see mood.
In conclusion, the domestic urea market currently lacks positive news to stimulate price changes. It is expected that urea market prices will continue to show a declining trend in the short term.
