Urea Daily Review: Clear low-price advantage, market operates firmly.
Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo data, the urea small granule price index on September 12th was 2588.77, an increase of 5 from yesterday, up 0.19% month-on-month, and up 3.15% year-on-year.
Urea Futures Market:
Today's urea UR2401 contract opened at 2146, with a high of 2176, a low of 2117, a settlement price of 2144, and a closing price of 2158. The closing price increased by 19 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.89%. The fluctuation range throughout the day was 2117-2176, with a price difference of 59. The 01 contract increased by 393 hands today, with a current position of 322978 hands.
Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market price was mostly stable with minor adjustments. Most companies' factory quotations remained unchanged from yesterday, while some companies slightly increased their factory quotations. The market mostly holds a wait-and-see attitude.
Specifically, the price in the Northeast region is stable at 2500-2560 yuan/ton. The price in North China has risen to 2440-2600 yuan/ton. The price in the Northwest region is stable at 2510-2520 yuan/ton. The price in the Southwest region is stable at 2450-2800 yuan/ton. The price in East China has risen to 2590-2650 yuan/ton. The price of small granules in Central China has risen to 2500-2700 yuan/ton, while the price of large granules is stable at 2570-2610 yuan/ton. The price in South China is stable at 2600-2720 yuan/ton.
Market Forecast:
In terms of supply, the current urea supply is still relatively tight, and company inventories are low. However, with the subsequent production of maintenance units and the concentrated release of new capacity, daily production will gradually increase. In terms of demand, the downstream compound fertilizer market has certain procurement needs, and with the continuation of previous exports, the demand side is favorable for price increases. In the market, due to the recent continuous decline in prices, some downstream factories are buying on dips. Urea companies are seeing good orders, transactions are increasing, and this is driving the market trading atmosphere.
Overall, the current low-price advantage is clear, and the market is temporarily operating firmly. It is expected that the urea spot price will maintain a range-bound operation in the short term. The specific situation still needs to pay attention to the resumption of production of subsequent devices.
