Urea Daily Review: Domestic and international demand is low, leading to a declining price trend
Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo data, the urea small granule price index was 2566.05 on August 28, showing a decline of 10 compared to the previous Friday, a decrease of 0.39% week-on-week, but a year-on-year increase of 6.36%.
Urea Futures Market:
The opening price of the urea UR2401 contract was 2309, with the highest at 2319, the lowest at 2177, a settlement price of 2243, and a closing price of 2216. The closing price dropped by 59 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.59%. The fluctuation range for the day was 2177-2319, with a difference of 142. The 01 contract reduced its holdings by 13,289 hands, with current holdings at 317,593.
Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market price showed a downward trend. Currently, both domestic and international demand have decreased, weakening market optimism, and several companies have lowered their factory prices.
Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2450-2520 yuan/ton. In the North China region, prices fell to 2400-2610 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest were stable at 2540-2550 yuan/ton. Southwest region prices remained at 2450-2800 yuan/ton. East China prices fell to 2540-2620 yuan/ton. Central China's small granule prices dropped to 2480-2700 yuan/ton, while large granules remained at 2550-2580 yuan/ton. South China prices dropped to 2620-2680 yuan/ton.
Market Forecast:
On the enterprise side, some companies have currently stopped quoting. Support comes from orders that were pending from earlier periods, but new order transactions have been average. Additionally, the recent increase in equipment maintenance by companies has been a positive for the supply side. On the demand side, the current period is an off-season for agricultural demand, and industrial demand has also slowed down, making the market demand relatively average. On the sentiment side, due to the continuous rise in urea prices in the previous period, the market price is temporarily high, causing downstream to be wary of high prices and cautious in purchasing. Internationally, global urea prices continue to fall, with Algeria's port offshore prices adjusted down to $381.5/ton by last Friday, equivalent to a drop of over 600 yuan/ton.
In summary, it's currently difficult for the urea market to transact at high prices. The sentiment lacks continuity, predicting fluctuations in the urea market in the short term.
