Urea Daily Review: Prices have reached a high point, resistance sentiment emerges.
Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to the data from Feidoodoo, the urea small granule price index on August 21st is 2519.14, down 17.27 from last Friday, a decrease of 0.68% from the previous week, and an increase of 4.75% year-on-year.
Urea Futures Market:
The opening price of the urea UR2401 contract is 2065, with a high of 2187, a low of 2065, a settlement price of 2135, and a closing price of 2162. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, it rose by 66, an increase of 3.15%. The daily fluctuation range is 2065-2187, with a price difference of 122. The 01 contract increased by 11,741 hands today, with a current position of 343,846 hands.
Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market price showed a downward trend. Affected by India's bidding in the previous period, the domestic market price rose to a high level, and market resistance sentiment began to emerge.
Specifically, the price in the Northeast region remains stable at 2240-2460 yuan/ton. The price in North China has dropped to 2350-2600 yuan/ton. The price in the Northwest region remains stable at 2590-2600 yuan/ton. The price in the Southwest region remains stable at 2400-2700 yuan/ton. The price in East China has dropped to 2500-2580 yuan/ton. The price of small granules in Central China has dropped to 2450-2680 yuan/ton, and the price of large granules has dropped to 2480-2550 yuan/ton. The price in South China has dropped to 2600-2680 yuan/ton.
Market Forecast:
From the enterprise perspective, many enterprises have recently overhauled their devices, and daily production is relatively low, which is favorable for the supply side and provides certain support for market prices. However, due to the continuous high rise in market prices in the previous period, the downstream market begins to show a fear of heights, buying cautiously, and the number of transactions has decreased. In terms of exports, judging from the results announced by India, most of the urea will be imported from China. For foreign markets, China's export volume far exceeds expectations, and the export demand is favorable for the limited fluctuation space of domestic urea. The international urea price has recently begun to show a downward trend.
Overall, the market still has certain favorable support. It is expected that the domestic urea market price will maintain a fluctuating operation. The specific situation still needs to pay attention to the purchasing sentiment of domestic factories and the price trend of foreign markets.
