Ammonium Chloride Market Rebounds Gradually, Prices Rise
Market Overview
In July, the ammonium chloride market gradually warmed up, with cautious price adjustments. By the end of the month, under the leadership of futures, the price of urea surged significantly, transactions were booming, factory quotations skyrocketed, and some companies adjusted their prices multiple times. This, to some extent, boosted the confidence in the ammonium chloride market. From the 15th of this month, downstream compound fertilizer factories have resumed production, and the demand for raw materials is also increasing. Although one company completed its maintenance by the end of the month and gradually resumed normal production, there was no significant supply pressure in the region, and the overall supply and demand were balanced. As of now: The mainstream price of dry ammonium in North China is 650 yuan/ton; in Central China, the mainstream factory price of dry ammonium is 700 yuan/ton, and wet ammonium is 600 yuan/ton; in East China, the mainstream factory price of dry ammonium is 700 yuan/ton, and wet ammonium is 600 yuan/ton.
Upstream and Downstream
Synthetic Ammonia: The synthetic ammonia market is strong with wide-ranging price increases. Recently, major factories in Shandong and Hubei have added new shutdown devices. Supported by the positive impact of reduced supply, the price of synthetic ammonia has risen sharply, boosting market sentiment. Peripheral regions have followed suit, and manufacturers have raised their quotations, with a generally firm attitude.
Industrial Salt: The industrial salt market has not changed much, with most market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach. In Shandong, some high-priced sea salt companies have adjusted their factory quotations flexibly, reducing them by 35 yuan/ton. The transaction focus of other sea salt markets remains stable. Downstream soda ash companies maintain a lukewarm attitude towards purchasing, and due to the good shipment of sea salt in the previous period, some salt companies in Shandong have average inventory, which still supports the market. Therefore, most salt companies prefer to ship at stable prices.
Compound Fertilizer: The domestic compound fertilizer market is driven by the positive impact of rising prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium raw materials. Compound fertilizer manufacturers generally have a strong price-holding mentality. The supply of low-end priced goods in the market has decreased. However, after the expiration of some manufacturers' autumn fertilizer pre-collection discount policies, they are no longer implemented, reducing benefits. But the current downstream dealers' acceptance is average, and they maintain a wait-and-see attitude, operating cautiously.
Related Products
Urea: Since the announcement of the urea tender in India, domestic urea prices have surged—within less than two days, the high-end quotation increased by 280 yuan/ton, reaching the highest increase since the "Russia-Ukraine conflict". Futures prices soared, boosting market sentiment. In Shanxi and the Two Rivers region, there were restrictions on accepting orders, manufacturers were reluctant to sell, and prices were adjusted 2-3 times in a single day. In addition to the favorable international prices, the proportion of exports has increased besides the demand for agriculture and industry. The current market transactions are active, and the number of orders collected by companies at ports has increased, restoring manufacturers' confidence in order collection.
Market Forecast
Currently, the desire to raise ammonium chloride prices is strong. It is expected that companies that have not yet raised prices will follow suit, basically rising to the same level. It is estimated that the average price of wet ammonium will be 610 yuan/ton, and dry ammonium will be 710 yuan/ton. Prices vary in different regions due to different demands.
Supply and Demand: After the price increase, there are fewer new orders, but with the advancement of agricultural demand and the rise in urea prices, it is expected that the transactions will still be decent, which can support the stable operation of ammonium chloride prices. The mentality of various companies is good and not pessimistic. On the supply side, some companies will resume production at the end of this month, and some companies will undergo annual maintenance in August, so there is still a high supply pressure.
Cost Side: The synthetic ammonia market continues to rise, and the industry's attitude is firm. In the short term, the recent trend of coal prices is relatively firm, the cost support of synthetic ammonia is still good, and the start of autumn fertilizer has also led to a continuous increase in the start-up of the downstream phosphate compound fertilizer industry. There is a certain positive demand side. It is expected that some shutdown devices in Shandong and other places will resume around the beginning of August, and the phenomenon of tight supply in some areas may be difficult to alleviate by the end of the month. Supported by various positives, the short-term synthetic ammonia price may remain firm at a high level.
Related Products: With the rise in urea prices, the downstream fear of high prices is gradually emerging, and individual factories have slightly weaker transactions, but overall transactions are still good. Before the Indian standard price is announced, if international prices continue to rise and there are no new policies on exports from domestic relevant departments, then even if it is the off-season for domestic agricultural demand, urea prices will hardly weaken; otherwise, the upward trend of domestic urea prices will be difficult to continue.
In summary, the ammonium chloride market still has support in the short term, the market sentiment is good, and it is expected that ammonium chloride will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term. Continue to pay attention to changes in compound fertilizer, urea, and raw material synthetic ammonia.
