August 1st, 2023, Urea daily comment: Prices continue to weaken low-end market transactions increased
Domestic urea price index:
According to the fat duo data estimates, the price index of small urea particles on August 1 was 2519.09, down 3.18 from yesterday, down 0.13% from the previous month, up 1.78% year-on-year.
Urea futures market:
Urea UR2309 contract opened later this morning, the price quickly rose slightly after falling to the lowest point within the session 2296, and then again shook up. In the afternoon, the price continued to rise, rising to the highest point within the board 2368 after a narrow decline, the end of 2354. Urea UR2309 contract opening price: 2305, the highest price: 2368, the lowest price: 2296, the settlement price: 2331, the closing price: 2354, the closing price compared with the previous trading day settlement price increased by 37, up 1.60% from the previous day, the fluctuation range of 2296-2368, the spread of 72; 09 Contract increased by 420 lots today, as of the current position of 235,950 lots.
Spot Market analysis:
Today, the domestic urea spot market price continued to decline slightly, and most regional quotations fell 20-120 yuan/ton. Domestic transactions significantly reduced, exports also temporarily slowed down stalemate, coupled with the weather affected some regional transportation, manufacturers are facing shipment and inventory pressure, so individual significantly loose to promote new single transactions. Specifically, the price in the northeast rose to 2250-2430 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,280 to 2,610 yuan/ton. The price in Northwest China fell to 2510-2520 yuan/ton. The price in southwest China is stable at 2450-3000 yuan/ton. The price in East China fell to 2480-2530 yuan/ton. In central China, the price of small and medium-sized particles fell to 2490-2700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2570-2630 yuan/ton. The price in South China fell to 2650-2720 yuan/ton.
Future market forecast:
In terms of futures, today's futures price is mainly volatile, and the spot guidance is not strong. From the basic point of view, the supply side, the current industry starts to maintain more than 80%, the daily output is more than 170,000 tons, and the new factory orders are reduced in the short term, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. On the demand side, farmers need to enter the seasonal gap period, and the downstream inquiries are increasingly rare, although the mainstream quotation is adjusted downward to promote the receipt of orders, but the effect is not obvious. Downstream compound fertilizer plants, plywood plants to maintain just need to replenish, the overall demand is weakening. Yesterday, we mentioned that the price of the two markets is moving towards a high level in the last cycle, and the printing price and volume are called the key factors determining the domestic market trend. The emotional side is only a short-term impact, boils down to the market supply and demand affect the market. In recent days due to the positive market is not clear, it is expected that in the short term the urea market is mainly weak down.
