Methanol: Futures set a new high, spot prices fluctuated at high levels

On November 22, the methanol market price index was 2,184.84, an increase of 19.64 from yesterday and an increase of 0.91% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on November 21:

China CFR 297-300/ton, down 3/ton;

U.S. FOB 118-119 cents/gallon, up 1 cent/gallon;

Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;

European FOB 411-412 euros/ton, up 2 euros/ton.

Today's price summary:

East China: Taicang: 2555-2590 (25), Zhejiang: 2630-2640 (30), Anhui: 2510-2520 (30)

South China: Guangdong: 2555-2570 (20), Fujian: 2570-2600 (20)

Shandong: South Shandong: 2400 (0), North Shandong: 2400-2450 (20), Linyi: 2440-2450 (10)

North China: Shanxi: 2150-2315 (0), Hebei: 2250-2330 (0)

Central China: Henan: 2340-2350 (20), Two Lakes: 2380-2600 (0)

Northwest: Guanzhong: 2160-2230 (0), northern Shaanxi: 2100-2120 (20), northern Inner Mongolia: 2100-2120 (15), southern Inner Mongolia: 2140 (0), Xinjiang: 1590-1730 (0)

Southwest: Yungui: 2180-2430 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2240-2520 (0)

Spot market analysis：

Today, the methanol market price continued to be consolidated at a high level, and the futures market reached a new high. The highest price rose to the 2630 mark. Port spot quotes were adjusted with the market. Various manufacturers in China were operating at high levels supported by low inventory pressure, and the overall market transaction atmosphere was improving. At present, the market prices in the main producing areas have adjusted within a narrow range. Today's quotation for the northern line is around 2,100 - 2,120 yuan/ton, with the low-end increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the southern line is 2140 yuan/ton, maintaining yesterday. With the smooth shipment in the early stage, at present, the overall inventory pressure of various manufacturers is not large. Coupled with the strong and volatile futures market, some players still have a certain sentiment of pushing up. Downstream players are still enthusiastic about entering the market to replenish goods, and the transaction atmosphere in the region is good. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2400 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2400- 2,450 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The overall enthusiasm of the downstream market to enter the market for replenishment is still good. Currently, there is little inventory pressure on manufacturers in the region, and prices remain high and volatile. The market quotations in North China have been consolidated at a high level. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,250 - 2,330 yuan/ton, which is stable at the low end. The downstream is mainly in need of replenishment, and the transaction atmosphere in the region is average; the price in Shanxi is 2,150 - 2,315 yuan/ton, which is stable at the low end. The futures market is strong and the mentality of the industry is improving. The quotations of manufacturers in the region continue to push up. However, the follow-up demand in the downstream market is limited, which constrains the methanol market price from continuing to rise to a certain extent.

Port Market:Today, methanol futures rose. Spot demand is average. The near-end unilateral rallies were positive for shipments, and the basis weakened significantly; for long-term arbitrage and exchange negotiations, the basis was slightly weaker. The monthly price difference between far and near has widened. The overall transaction was active. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: 11:2565-2590, basis 01-35/-27; 12:2585-2600, basis 01-19/-15; 12:2605-2635, basis 01+10/+15; 1:2645-2655, basis 01+30/+35.

Market outlook forecast:Recently, methanol market prices have fluctuated at a high level supported by multiple favorable conditions. Downstream terminals and traders have a positive attitude towards replenishing goods. Shipments from manufacturers in various regions of China have been relatively smooth. Supported by low inventory pressure, manufacturers in the region have quoted prices. Higher, supported by both favorable supply and demand, manufacturers in the region have fluctuated at high levels. At present, it is expected that the methanol market price will be strong and volatile next week, but in the later period, we need to pay attention to the profit and loss situation of the downstream market and the sentiment of replenishing goods entering the market as the spot price increases.