September 14 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Cost Support Weakens Marginally, MAP and DAP Consolidate Under Pressure

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data, on September 14, China's 55% powdered MAP index was 4,141.25, down 1.19% from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,300.00, down 1.71%; and the 58% powdered MAP index was 4,416.67, down 2.57%.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic MAP market continued to weaken. On the producer side, most plants are still executing earlier orders; prices of 55% powder continued to fall, traders kept lowering quotations, and actual transactions remained subject to negotiation. On the market side, current market inventories are relatively ample, and the stagnant, quiet atmosphere continues. On the demand side, some downstream compound-fertilizer enterprises are mainly using previously stocked raw materials and maintaining only small rigid-demand purchases. Purchasing enthusiasm is low, new orders are limited, the market mindset is cautious, and demand remains weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices came under downward pressure today; sulfur port inventories remain at relatively low levels; sulfuric acid prices continued to weaken; and the phosphate rock market remained in a weak pattern. Raw-material prices on the cost side all fell, but they remain at high levels and still provide relatively strong support to enterprises. Overall, the current MAP market remains in a pattern of weak supply and weak demand. Cost support is weakening marginally while demand recovery is sluggish, and the market is expected to maintain a weak downward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to raw-material price trends, the pace at which downstream compound-fertilizer autumn purchasing starts, and the impact of geopolitical developments on the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data, on September 14, China's mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,563.33, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,700.00, unchanged; and the 57% content DAP index was 4,367.50, unchanged.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic DAP market consolidated in a weak manner. On the producer side, some producers are mainly shipping earlier pending orders, prices remain firm, and actual transactions remain subject to negotiation. On the market side, the trading atmosphere is strongly wait-and-see. On the demand side, although the autumn fertilizer purchasing window is gradually approaching, market caution remains strong, downstream actual follow-through is limited, purchases are concentrated in small rigid-demand orders, and large-scale procurement has not yet started. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices came under downward pressure today; sulfur port inventories remain at relatively low levels; sulfuric acid prices continued to weaken; and the phosphate rock market remained weak. Raw-material prices on the cost side all declined, but remain at relatively high levels and continue to provide strong support. Overall, the short-term DAP market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend. Attention should be paid to changes in raw-material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data, on September 14, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,600 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,580 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; powder and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 7,550 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; powder and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,530 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; East China solid sulfur was 7,700 yuan/tonne, unchanged; and East China liquid sulfur was 7,620 yuan/tonne, down 45 yuan/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic sulfur market showed a downward trend under pressure. Granular sulfur prices at Yangtze River ports weakened. Holder sentiment loosened, and some sellers willing to move cargo lowered quotations to promote transactions, but end-users' habitual wait-and-see attitude remained unchanged, so actual trading improved only slightly. The Shandong liquid sulfur market showed some resilience, with bidding by independent refiners still attracting follow-through. Regional trends diverged, and the difference between solid and liquid sulfur markets was clear. On the demand side, downstream phosphate-fertilizer and titanium dioxide industries showed low purchasing enthusiasm and limited acceptance of current prices, mostly maintaining small rigid-demand purchases without willingness to restock at scale. After sulfur prices fell sharply from earlier highs, downstream enterprises' profits improved, but under a buy-rising-not-falling mindset, intended buying contracted further, and sellers' active concessions still could not clearly stimulate transaction volume. On the international market, Middle East geopolitical conditions remain the largest external variable. Uncertainty over shipping efficiency through the Strait of Hormuz directly affects vessel schedules and arrival pace, and the transmission of overseas price fluctuations to the domestic market remains sensitive. China's sulfur import dependence is high, making it difficult in the short term for domestic prices to operate independently of the global pricing system. Overall, sulfur is in a phase of weak supply and demand and subdued sentiment. Upside is constrained by weak downstream demand, while downside is supported by low inventories and landed costs. In the short term, the market is likely to continue weak, rangebound consolidation. Attention should be paid to changes in port arrival pace, marginal improvement in downstream phosphate-fertilizer operating rates and purchasing willingness, and further disruption from Middle East developments to international sulfur flows.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News:

September 14: Anhui MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder at around 4,150-4,200 yuan/tonne, prices stable.

September 14: Northeast MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder at around 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, prices stable.

September 14: Henan MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder at around 4,050-4,200 yuan/tonne, prices lowered.

September 14: Hubei MAP market, mainstream ex-factory price for 55% powder at around 4,000-4,100 yuan/tonne, prices lowered.

September 14: Jiangsu MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder at around 4,100-4,250 yuan/tonne, prices lowered.

September 14: Shandong MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder at around 4,050-4,300 yuan/tonne, prices lowered.

September 14: Sichuan MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder at around 4,200-4,250 yuan/tonne, prices stable.

September 14: Yunnan MAP market, ex-factory price for 55% powder at around 4,000-4,100 yuan/tonne, prices lowered.

September 14: Shaanxi DAP market, ex-factory self-pickup quotations for 60% product at 4,500-4,650 yuan/tonne, prices stable.

September 14: Northeast DAP market, ex-factory self-pickup quotations for 64% product at 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, prices stable.

September 14: Hebei DAP market, self-pickup quotations for 57% product at 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, prices stable.

September 14: Hubei DAP market, ex-factory self-pickup quotations for 64% product at 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, prices stable.

September 14: Shandong DAP market, ex-warehouse self-pickup quotations for 64% product at 4,850-4,950 yuan/tonne, prices stable; 57% product self-pickup at station at 4,300-4,400 yuan/tonne, prices lowered.