September 14 Pesticide Daily Review: Stabilizing in a Wait-and-See Mode

The overall pesticide market is in an off-season volatile trading phase. Market sentiment has improved slightly from the earlier period, but downstream purchasing is still mainly rigid-demand follow-through. Some products recently have strong support from rising costs, and various factors are constraining supply, producing pronounced short-term price gains. However, because of transmission issues along the industrial chain, expectations of downstream negative feedback from higher prices also exist, and the market is temporarily watching whether end-user demand can provide further follow-through. Middle East geopolitical tensions remain intense, direct armed conflict between the United States and Iran continues, and the Houthis have also carried out military action against Saudi Arabia. Shipping expectations through the two chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have declined, and expectations of higher costs for petrochemical products have reappeared. On balance, the market currently remains cautious. Some products are rising noticeably, but other categories are still struggling to follow higher, differentiation is obvious, and a wait-and-see atmosphere persists. Going forward, attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment, export intensity, and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides: The herbicide market as a whole is showing some signs of stabilizing. The large single-product items glufosinate and glyphosate are both showing supply-side repair because of rising raw-material prices. The cost pressure from geopolitical risks is gradually emerging, but on the demand side the market is still watching for further drivers. Recently, glufosinate prices have jumped sharply, mainly affected by tight supply and higher prices for raw-material intermediates, as well as India's anti-dumping actions. The market is paying attention to how transactions develop after the large price rise; if prices continue to rise, expectations of substitute products following higher cannot be ruled out. Overall, downstream players are mostly maintaining rigid-demand purchases, and the market is watching whether a broad-based upward driver will emerge.

Yellow Phosphorus: Today, yellow phosphorus market prices edged higher. Last week, producers actively negotiated prices and moved volumes, after which their public quotations became cautious and some expectations of price increases appeared in the market. For now, producers are mainly shipping existing orders. Mainstream producers had relatively good earlier sales, and after easing their own inventory pressure, they again have conditions to support prices. In the short term, downstream buyers are making moderate rigid-demand purchases, and the price center has edged up.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides:

96% quizalofop-p-ethyl fell by 5,000 yuan to 135,000 yuan/tonne; 95% nicosulfuron fell by 3,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan/tonne; 97% fluroxypyr fell by 2,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan/tonne.

Insecticides:

97% pymetrozine fell by 2,000 yuan to 94,000 yuan/tonne; 97% chlorpyrifos fell by 1,000 yuan to 37,000 yuan/tonne; 98% monosultap fell by 2,000 yuan to 80,000 yuan/tonne.

Fungicides:

96% hexaconazole fell by 2,000 yuan to 86,000 yuan/tonne; 95% epoxiconazole fell by 5,000 yuan to 230,000 yuan/tonne.