September 10 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Slow Start to Autumn Fertilizer Demand, Weak Phosphate Market and High-Level Sulfur Consolidation

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on September 10, China's 55% powdered MAP index stood at 4,210.00, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,375.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powdered MAP index stood at 4,533.33, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic MAP market remained weak today. On the producer side, most plants continued to execute previous orders. Prices for 55% powdered MAP continued to decline, traders continued to lower their quotations, and actual transactions remained subject to negotiation. On the market side, the stagnant and subdued trading atmosphere persisted. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers mainly used raw materials stocked earlier and maintained only limited rigid-demand procurement. Purchasing enthusiasm was low, new-order transactions were limited, market participants remained cautious amid the stalemate, and demand continued to be relatively weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to consolidate today, with divergent regional trends. Sulfur inventories at ports remained relatively low overall, sulfuric acid prices continued to weaken, and the phosphate rock market was broadly stable. Cost-side prices remained high and continued to provide strong support to producers. Overall, weak supply and demand conditions persist in the MAP market. With marginally weaker cost support and a lacklustre demand recovery, the market is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, with prices testing slightly lower levels. Attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace at which downstream compound fertilizer producers begin autumn stockpiling, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on September 10, China's mainstream 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,563.33, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,700.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index stood at 4,375.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic DAP market traded weakly today. On the producer side, some producers focused mainly on shipping pending orders placed earlier. Producers maintained firm prices, while actual transactions remained subject to negotiation. On the market side, the wait-and-see atmosphere remained strong. On the demand side, although the autumn fertilizer stockpiling window is gradually approaching, cautious sentiment remains prevalent. Actual downstream follow-through is limited, procurement is concentrated mainly on small rigid-demand orders, and large-scale purchasing has yet to begin. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices fluctuated within a consolidation range today. Sulfur inventories at ports remained relatively low overall, sulfuric acid prices continued to weaken, and the phosphate rock market remained stable. High raw material costs continued to provide strong support to the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain weak and consolidate in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data, on September 10, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,700 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 7,680 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; lump/powder sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,650 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; lump/powder sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 7,630 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; solid sulfur in East China was priced at 7,700 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day; and liquid sulfur in East China was priced at 7,620 yuan/tonne, up 85 yuan/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic sulfur spot market generally consolidated at high levels today. Quotations in major regions were broadly stable, with minor local fluctuations and adjustments. Trading activity was subdued, and both buyers and sellers maintained a strong wait-and-see stance. On the supply side, domestic refinery operations were generally stable and domestic sulfur supply remained steady. Port inventories remained relatively low, providing underlying support for spot prices. On the import side, the continuing escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has kept marine insurance premiums and freight costs elevated. Concerns remain over the pace of subsequent import arrivals, marginally strengthening traders' willingness to support prices. However, cargoes that arrived earlier can still meet current market circulation needs, and no clear signal of a substantial overall supply contraction has emerged. On the demand side, overall performance remained weak. Operating rates in the downstream phosphate fertilizer industry stayed low, and raw material procurement continued to follow an as-needed restocking strategy. There was insufficient motivation for concentrated stockpiling, acceptance of high-priced cargoes was limited, and actual transaction follow-through remained inadequate. Demand from new-energy-related sectors remained relatively stable and provided some rigid-demand support, but was insufficient to offset the overall weakness in demand. Overall, the sulfur market is currently caught between cost support and weak demand. Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt market expectations, and the market is expected to remain within a narrow range at high levels in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of import arrivals, changes in port inventories, the pace of recovery in downstream phosphate fertilizer operating rates and further developments in the Middle East geopolitical situation.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

September 10: Delivered quotations for 55% powdered MAP in Anhui were approximately 4,300-4,400 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Delivered quotations for 55% powdered MAP in Northeast China were approximately 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Delivered quotations for 55% powdered MAP in Henan were approximately 4,150-4,300 yuan/tonne, with quotations lowered.

September 10: Mainstream ex-factory quotations for 55% powdered MAP in Hubei were approximately 4,050-4,300 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Delivered quotations for 55% powdered MAP in Jiangsu were approximately 4,150-4,350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Delivered quotations for 55% powdered MAP in Shandong were approximately 4,150-4,300 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Delivered quotations for 55% powdered MAP in Sichuan were approximately 4,200-4,250 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Ex-factory quotations for 55% powdered MAP in Yunnan were approximately 4,000-4,150 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Ex-factory self-pickup quotations for 60% DAP in Shaanxi were 4,500-4,650 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Ex-factory self-pickup quotations for 64% DAP in Northeast China were 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Self-pickup quotations for 57% DAP in Hebei were 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Ex-factory self-pickup quotations for 64% DAP in Hubei were 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 10: Ex-warehouse self-pickup quotations for 64% DAP in Shandong were 4,850-4,950 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable; self-pickup quotations at railway platforms for 57% DAP were 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, also stable.