September 10 International Fertilizer and Agricultural News

Trump's Trade War With Canada Runs Into a Familiar Problem

The Donald Trump administration has removed punitive tariffs on imports of Canadian cement, toilet paper and other goods after acknowledging that the measures were harming US consumers. At the same time, however, the administration has further escalated its confrontation with Ottawa by introducing outright bans on imports of Canadian alcoholic beverages and motorcycles.

This has become a recurring feature of Trump's foreign trade disputes: after protests from US consumers and industry groups, the administration repeatedly revises the list of products subject to tariffs. Trump's punitive tariffs on Canada and Ottawa's corresponding countermeasures do not apply to energy, potash or critical minerals.

On August 22, the United States began imposing an additional 50% tariff on approximately $28 billion worth of Canadian imports, including cement, plywood and paper. On Tuesday evening, Trump ordered changes to the list of products covered by the tariffs. Effective September 15, the 50% tariffs on Canadian cement, rock salt and toilet paper will be removed.

In their place, Trump ordered 50% tariffs on a range of other Canadian imports, including steel posts and certain aluminium by-products, effective September 15. Import bans targeting Canadian alcoholic beverages and motorcycles manufactured in Canada will take effect on September 29.

"Canada walked away from a nearly finalized trade agreement that offered it better treatment than any other US trading partner," US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said. "Instead, Canada chose to launch a pointless campaign of retaliation."

Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US steel and aluminium products took effect on Tuesday. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said bilateral trade negotiations collapsed because the United States made unreasonable demands.

"The United States wants to make us more dependent on them, rather than less dependent," Carney said on Tuesday. Last week, he said he was prepared to resume trade talks once the United States began "acting in good faith."

The latest escalation in the trade conflict comes as Trump plans to hold an unconventional Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, in an effort to boost the party's prospects ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Republican officials have dubbed the gathering the "Trumpapalooza Convention," which is intended to promote Trump's economic and geopolitical achievements since returning to the White House last year.

"This election comes down to one simple choice: lower the cost of living, cut taxes, secure the border and pursue common-sense policies," Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said on September 5.

With fewer than two months remaining before the election, multiple opinion polls indicate that the Democrats could win control of at least one chamber of Congress and possibly regain both chambers, partly because voters are concerned about rising inflation.

US inflation reached a three-year high early this summer, largely because Trump's confrontation with Iran drove up retail fuel prices in the United States. In the week ending September 7, US retail gasoline prices averaged $4.16/US gallon, approximately 40% higher than at the end of February, when the United States and Israel launched their attacks on Iran. Higher tariffs have also contributed to rising US consumer goods prices.

Elevated inflation has also weakened Trump's case for calling on the Federal Reserve to make a substantial reduction in its target interest rate. Last week, Trump threatened to impose import bans on major US trading partners, including Canada and the European Union, unless the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates.

In February, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's decision to impose arbitrary tariffs on countries in 2025 was unlawful. At the same time, however, the ruling stated that Congress had explicitly granted the White House the authority to impose a comprehensive trade embargo on any country.

Since then, although Trump has condemned the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, he has frequently promoted this newly identified executive authority. The ban on imports of certain Canadian goods will mark the first time the White House has exercised this power.

Brazil's Soybean Oil Exports Rise 31% in August

Driven by stronger demand from India, Brazil's soybean oil exports increased by 31% year on year in August to nearly 206,648 tonnes.

Cumulative soybean oil exports from January to August rose by 42% year on year to approximately 1.57mn tonnes. India was the largest destination, importing nearly 176,683 tonnes and accounting for 85% of Brazil's total soybean oil exports in August.

Indonesia and Malaysia raised their mandatory biodiesel blending rates, driving a sharp increase in palm oil prices. Buyers consequently shifted toward soybean oil cargoes, increasing international demand for Brazilian soybean oil and drawing greater attention from Asian vegetable oil importers to South American supplies.

Grain processors estimate that, if the current growth rate continues, Brazil's soybean oil exports could reach 2mn tonnes in 2026, exceeding the 1.7mn tonnes forecast by the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove).