September 1 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Cost support remains, but weak demand keeps the phosphate fertilizer market under pressure in the short term

MAP Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo data, the domestic 55% powder MAP index stood at 4,322.50 on September 1, down 0.92% from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index was 4,425.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 58% powder MAP index was 4,666.67, down 0.21% from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:
The domestic MAP market remained weak today. On the producer side, most plants continued to execute earlier orders. Market prices edged lower, traders' quotations varied, and transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment showed no material improvement. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers continued to consume previously stocked raw materials and maintained only limited rigid-demand purchases. New-order transactions were limited, market sentiment remained cautious and deadlocked, and demand was still weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to rebound after stabilizing; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices remained weak; and the phosphate rock market remained under pressure, although prices stayed within a historically high range. Continued declines in costs affected market sentiment, but cost support remained relatively strong. Overall, the MAP market is expected to remain weak and range-bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of autumn fertilizer stocking by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the pass-through effect of geopolitical developments on costs.

DAP Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo data, the mainstream domestic 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,563.33 on September 1, down 0.18% from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index was 4,700.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index was 4,392.50, down 0.68% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:
The domestic DAP market remained weak and range-bound today. On the producer side, some producers focused on shipping previously pending orders and maintained firm prices, while actual transactions continued to be negotiated. On the market side, trading activity remained low, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. On the demand side, demand has not shown a substantive recovery, and the overall pace of product movement remains slow. Although the autumn fertilizer stocking window is gradually approaching and transactions have improved slightly from earlier levels, downstream follow-through remains limited and large-scale procurement has not started. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to rebound after stabilizing; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low; sulfuric acid prices remained weak; and the phosphate rock market remained under pressure. Continued declines in raw material costs further affected market sentiment, but costs continued to provide strong support. Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices:
According to Feidoodoo data, on September 1, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,550 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,530 yuan/tonne, unchanged; lump and powder sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 7,500 yuan/tonne, unchanged; lump and powder sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,480 yuan/tonne, unchanged; solid sulfur in East China was 7,700 yuan/tonne, unchanged; and liquid sulfur in East China was 7,375 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:
The domestic sulfur spot market generally fluctuated higher today, with market bargaining remaining evident. On the geopolitical side, renewed tensions in the Middle East and repeated developments in US-Iran relations continued to affect shipping expectations through the Strait of Hormuz. Uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern cargo shipments has continued to add risk premiums to international prices and provide sentiment and cost support to the domestic sulfur market. On the demand side, downstream phosphate fertilizer producers remained constrained by the pace of autumn fertilizer stocking and continued to purchase mainly for replenishment of rigid demand. Their willingness to purchase at high prices was weak, creating a practical constraint on price increases. Port arrivals and domestic refinery output remained at normal supply levels, ensuring baseline market availability. Using Zhenjiang Port as the market benchmark, the mainstream transaction price for granular sulfur was 7,550 yuan/tonne today, broadly in line with morning expectations. Inquiry activity at the port was moderate, downstream buyers remained cautious in their bids, and some holders moderately increased their willingness to sell, leaving spot prices broadly stable. Following a period of price testing, both buyers and sellers became more rational and generally traded in line with the market. Buyers were no longer excessively pursuing lower prices, while sellers showed greater willingness to make concessions to conclude deals. Multiple spot transactions were completed at 7,550 yuan/tonne. Interest at the port remains, but buyers' bids are relatively restrained and holders are not under urgent pressure to sell, so the bargaining pattern continues. If downstream buying strengthens, spot prices may test higher. In the short term, the sulfur market lacks a clear directional driver. Attention should continue to focus on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the pace of imported cargo arrivals and the release of operating capacity at domestic downstream phosphorus chemical producers.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:
September 1: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Anhui was around 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, down.
September 1: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Northeast China was around 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 1: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Henan was around 4,330-4,380 yuan/tonne, down.
September 1: The mainstream ex-factory quotation for 55% powder MAP in Hubei was around 4,250-4,350 yuan/tonne, down.
September 1: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Jiangsu was around 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, down.
September 1: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Shandong was around 4,300-4,350 yuan/tonne, down.
September 1: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Sichuan was around 4,200-4,250 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 1: The ex-factory quotation for 55% powder MAP in Yunnan was around 4,150-4,200 yuan/tonne, down.
September 1: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 60% DAP in Shaanxi was 4,700-4,750 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 1: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 64% DAP in Northeast China was 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 1: The self-pickup quotation for 57% DAP in Hebei was 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, down.
September 1: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 64% DAP in Hubei was 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 1: The self-pickup warehouse quotation for 64% DAP in Shandong was 4,900-4,950 yuan/tonne, down; the self-pickup station quotation for 57% DAP was 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, down.