September 1 Pesticide Daily Review: Market sentiment remains weak

The pesticide market remains broadly weak in sentiment. Downstream demand follow-through is limited during the traditional off-season, market drivers are insufficient, and the cost-increase narrative has eased as geopolitical tensions moderated. Some products continue to receive support from higher costs, while supply has contracted to some extent under a range of factors. However, higher prices have also continued to trigger negative feedback from downstream segments because of constrained pass-through along the value chain, and the market is waiting to see whether end-user demand can absorb supply more effectively. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified again, with direct armed conflict between the United States and Iran resuming. Market concerns have returned, expectations for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have weakened, and cost support from the petrochemical sector remains in place. Overall, market caution persists. Price increases in some upstream products continue to face obstacles in passing through to downstream markets, upward momentum has slowed, and wait-and-see sentiment remains evident. Attention should focus on changes in geopolitical sentiment, export strength and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides:
The herbicide market remains in a low-level consolidation phase. Prices are already close to cost lines, limiting further downside, but weak demand is also constraining upside. Cost increases caused by geopolitical risks remain in place, but insufficient demand absorption makes it difficult to create upward momentum. The United States has invoked the Defense Production Act to designate elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides as critical defense materials, requiring priority supply for the domestic market. This development continues to provide positive support to the domestic market. Overall, downstream buyers are mainly purchasing for rigid demand, and short-term market sentiment remains weak. Attention should focus on whether exports improve and on changes in geopolitical sentiment.

Yellow Phosphorus:
Yellow phosphorus prices continued to decline today, while transaction sentiment moderated. In the short term, producers are mainly shipping existing orders. Mainstream producers achieved relatively good shipments earlier, while midstream and downstream buyers have largely completed their stocking and follow-through on new orders is limited. Upstream producers generally hold relatively low inventories, and some producers have recently cut output, so conditions for supporting prices remain. However, downstream buyers are clearly seeking lower prices and testing the market. With demand follow-through weak, quotations have come under pressure and moved lower. As downstream follow-through slows in the short term, market sentiment is under pressure again and participants are mainly taking a wait-and-see stance.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides:
96% oxyfluorfen fell by 2,000 yuan to 130,000 yuan/tonne.

Insecticides:
97% acetamiprid fell by 1,000 yuan to 57,000 yuan/tonne. 97% clothianidin fell by 1,000 yuan to 64,000 yuan/tonne. 97% chlorfenapyr fell by 2,000 yuan to 116,000 yuan/tonne. 97% lufenuron fell by 3,000 yuan to 112,000 yuan/tonne.

Fungicides:
97% tebuconazole fell by 1,000 yuan to 46,000 yuan/tonne. 98% azoxystrobin fell by 3,000 yuan to 120,000 yuan/tonne. 97% pyraclostrobin fell by 2,000 yuan to 123,000 yuan/tonne.