Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Phosphate Fertilizer Market Waits in Weak Stability as Geopolitical Cooling Still Leaves Disruptions (20260807)

01 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis

MAP:

The domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to operate weakly this week. On the cost side, recent U.S.-Iran negotiations over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continued to release positive signals, but the outlook for navigation remains highly uncertain. Potential shipping disruptions continue to provide geopolitical sentiment support for sulfur. Domestic sulfur prices are consolidating at high levels, port inventories remain low, sulfuric acid prices are weak, and phosphate rock remains high and stable. Multiple raw materials remain expensive, leaving MAP producers under significant cost pressure. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer preparation is progressing slowly, terminal willingness to purchase is weak, compound fertilizer enterprises face finished-product inventory pressure, raw material restocking enthusiasm is insufficient, only small rigid-demand purchases are made, and new order follow-up is weak. Overall, the short-term MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the start pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to costs.

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: this week, the average 55% powder price index was 4405.50, down 6.50 from last week, or -0.15% week on week. The 55% granular price index averaged 4450.00, unchanged from last week, or +0.00% week on week. The 58% powder price index averaged 4693.33, down 10.00 from last week, or -0.21% week on week.

DAP:

The domestic diammonium phosphate market operated steadily with consolidation this week. On the cost side, recent U.S.-Iran negotiations over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continued to release positive signals, but the outlook for navigation remains highly uncertain. Potential shipping disruptions continue to provide geopolitical sentiment support for sulfur. Domestic sulfur prices are consolidating at high levels, port inventories remain low, sulfuric acid is weak, and phosphate rock prices also remain high. Multiple raw material costs remain elevated, providing firm support for market prices. On the demand side, downstream purchasing remains weak. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintain low operating rates, procurement willingness is generally low, only scattered downstream inquiries appear, actual order follow-up is limited, overall trading activity is low, and transactions cannot form effective volume. Overall, the short-term DAP market is expected to continue consolidating. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: this week, the average 64% granular price index was 4571.67, unchanged from last week, or +0.00% week on week. The 60% brown price index averaged 4350.00, unchanged from last week. The 57% DAP price index averaged 4440.50, up 5.50 from last week, or +0.12% week on week.

02 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Conditions

2.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Conditions

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was about 56.48%, up 1.46 percentage points from last week and down 6.02 percentage points year on year. The MAP operating rate rose slightly during the week and remained below the same period last year.

2.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Conditions

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was about 38.72%, up 0.70 percentage points from last week and down 20.50 percentage points year on year. The DAP operating rate rose during the week and remained below the same period last year.

03 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Output Trend

3.1 Domestic MAP Weekly Output Trend

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, domestic MAP output was about 227,100 tonnes, up 2.67% from last week and down 6.43% year on year. Domestic MAP weekly output increased during the week and remained below the same period last year.

3.2 Domestic DAP Weekly Output Trend

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, domestic DAP output was about 188,200 tonnes, up 1.84% from last week and down 29.57% year on year. Domestic DAP weekly output increased during the week and remained below the same period last year.

04 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend

4.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trend

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, major domestic MAP port inventory was about 0 tonnes, unchanged from last week.

4.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trend

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, major domestic DAP port inventory was about 29,500 tonnes, unchanged from last week.

05 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

MAP: Looking ahead, the MAP market is expected to continue high-level consolidation and bargaining in the short term. The supply side has some contraction expectations, as some enterprises plan maintenance or production cuts, and output is expected to fall somewhat. But social inventory remains relatively sufficient, partly offsetting supply reductions. On the demand side, as autumn compound fertilizer preparation gradually starts, downstream raw material restocking demand is expected, and compound fertilizer capacity utilization may rise. However, terminal acceptance of high-priced cargoes remains limited, downstream procurement is still mainly small rigid-demand orders, and new order volume is insufficient. On the cost side, sulfur prices remain high and phosphate rock is firm, so cost support remains strong and enterprises clearly intend to support prices. Overall, under the tug-of-war between rigid cost support and mild demand improvement, large short-term price moves in MAP are unlikely, and prices are expected to consolidate narrowly within a high range. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the actual start pace of autumn compound fertilizer preparation, and marginal changes in export policy.

DAP: Looking ahead, the DAP market is expected to continue stalemate consolidation and high-level range-bound movement in the short term. The market is currently in the demand off-season, downstream procurement sentiment is generally cautious, resistance to high-priced cargoes is obvious, and terminal users mostly prefer to wait and replenish as needed near the fertilizer application season. However, as the autumn fertilizer preparation window approaches, rigid-demand expectations still exist, and the actual release pace of terminal demand will be the key variable for market direction. On the cost side, phosphate rock remains firm, sulfur prices fluctuate but remain generally high, and comprehensive production costs remain elevated, providing strong bottom support for market prices. Although some enterprises have restarted and industry operating loads have recovered somewhat, overall capacity utilization remains relatively low and supply recovery is slow. Overall, under the tug-of-war between rigid cost support and expectations for mild demand improvement, large short-term fluctuations in DAP prices are unlikely, and prices are expected to remain in high-level consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on actual autumn demand release, export policy direction, and raw material price fluctuations.

06 Sulfur Market Analysis

6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

The domestic sulfur market showed narrow consolidation this week, running at high levels. Supply remains generally tight, but demand is limited under raw material cost pressure. Long-short bargaining is obvious, and the market is in stalemate. By region, liquid sulfur prices in Northeast China fell slightly, while solid sulfur stayed relatively firm under the influence of external markets. In Northwest China, the spread between high and low prices widened further. Earlier concentrated purchases by fine chemical enterprises pushed up some high-end quotations, but later in the week, some downstream units stopped or reduced production, market fatigue appeared, some cargoes failed at auction, and some local supply resumed, increasing regional supply. Shandong liquid sulfur fluctuated repeatedly. After a short-lived surge, high prices pressured downstream profits, chasing sentiment faded, failed auctions appeared, limited imports and low port inventories supported spot prices, low-level restocking existed, and prices returned to high-level fluctuations after surging. In East China, limited import arrivals and some units not yet restarted kept supply tight, downstream demand was mainly rigid, and the market stayed high. In overseas markets, global sulfur supply is expected to tighten, but news about Strait of Hormuz navigation disturbed sentiment, leaving the international market in long-short bargaining amid complex overseas news. Domestically, the market initially digested overseas geopolitical news with flat spot trading sentiment. As signals of geopolitical easing emerged, some holders intended to sell at concessions, the market adjusted slightly lower, some refinery tenders saw no substantive deals, directional guidance was lacking, wait-and-see sentiment was strong, inquiries were generally weak, and port trading was stalemated. Outlook: the short-term domestic sulfur market will likely continue high-level volatile consolidation, with limited unilateral drivers in either direction. On supply, attention should focus on domestic refinery restart progress, regional cargo release pace, and import arrival changes. Port inventory levels remain an important support factor. Externally, the evolution of international geopolitics, supply changes in overseas producing regions, and overseas contract price guidance should be monitored, as geopolitical events will still bring sentiment disturbance.

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 7, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 9150.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 9130.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 9100.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 9080.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The East China solid sulfur price was 9300.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The East China liquid sulfur price was 9050.00, down from the previous working day.

07 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, major domestic sulfur port inventory was about 866,500 tonnes, down 30,500 tonnes from last week, or -3.40% week on week.

08 Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

8.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, China’s sample sulfur output was 192,900 tonnes, with capacity utilization at 45.39%, up 1.02 percentage points from last week.

8.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, East China sample sulfur weekly output was 26,300 tonnes, up 2,100 tonnes from last week, with capacity utilization at 27.29%, up 2.19 percentage points from last week. East China weekly output accounted for 14% of national output.

8.3 East China Capacity Utilization

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, the domestic sulfur operating rate in East China was about 27.29%.

8.4 Solid Sulfur Arrival Volume

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: as of this week, the planned August import arrival volume of solid sulfur at major domestic ports is temporarily 8,000 tonnes.