Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Persistent Pressure From Market Fundamentals as Participants Await Changes in Autumn Fertilizer Demand (September 11, 2026)

01 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis

MAP:

The domestic MAP market continued to weaken this week. On the cost side, domestic sulfur prices underwent weak consolidation with divergent trends, port inventories remained low overall, sulfuric acid prices consolidated weakly and phosphate rock remained under pressure at high levels. Cost-side prices remained elevated and continued to provide relatively strong support to producers. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers mainly used raw materials stocked earlier and maintained only limited rigid-demand procurement. Purchasing enthusiasm was low, new-order transactions were limited, participants remained cautious amid the market stalemate and demand continued to be relatively weak. Overall, the MAP market is expected to remain weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace at which downstream compound fertilizer producers begin autumn stockpiling, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

According to Feidoodoo data, the average 55% powdered MAP price index stood at 4,222.50 this week, down 81.50 from the previous week, representing a week-on-week decline of 1.89%. The average 55% granular MAP price index was 4,385.00, down 40.00 or 0.90%. The average 58% powdered MAP price index was 4,550.00, down 92.00 or 1.98%.

DAP:

The domestic DAP market continued to consolidate amid a wait-and-see atmosphere this week. On the cost side, domestic sulfur prices underwent weak consolidation with divergent trends, port inventories remained low overall, sulfuric acid prices consolidated weakly and phosphate rock remained under pressure at high levels. Cost-side prices remained elevated and continued to provide relatively strong support to producers. On the demand side, although some downstream demand was released, overall follow-through was insufficient. The pace of shipments remained slow, cautious sentiment was still prevalent, actual follow-through was limited and large-scale procurement had yet to begin. Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

According to Feidoodoo data, the average 64% granular DAP price index stood at 4,563.33 this week, down 1.67 from the previous week, representing a week-on-week decline of 0.04%. The average 60% brown DAP price index was 4,620.00, down 80.00 or 1.70%. The average 57% DAP price index was 4,375.00, down 13.00 or 0.30%.

02 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Conditions

2.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Conditions

According to Feidoodoo data, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was approximately 47.91% this week, down 3.35 percentage points from the previous week and 18.23 percentage points year on year. The operating rate declined during the week and remained below the corresponding level last year.

2.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Conditions

According to Feidoodoo data, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was approximately 43.95% this week, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week but down 18.39 percentage points year on year. The operating rate increased during the week but remained below the corresponding level last year.

03 Domestic Weekly Phosphate Fertilizer Output Trends

3.1 Domestic Weekly MAP Output Trends

According to Feidoodoo data, domestic MAP output was approximately 192,600 tonnes this week, down 6.55% from the previous week and 25.23% year on year. Weekly MAP output declined and remained below the corresponding level last year.

3.2 Domestic Weekly DAP Output Trends

According to Feidoodoo data, domestic DAP output was approximately 213,600 tonnes this week, up 0.38% from the previous week but down 26.29% year on year. Weekly DAP output increased but remained below the corresponding level last year.

04 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

4.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trends

According to Feidoodoo data, MAP inventories at China’s major ports were approximately zero tonnes this week, unchanged from the previous week.

4.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trends

According to Feidoodoo data, DAP inventories at China’s major ports were approximately 29,500 tonnes this week, unchanged from the previous week.

05 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

MAP: Looking ahead, the MAP market may weaken before stabilizing and subsequently trade within a range. Autumn fertilizer stockpiling is progressing slowly in the short term, compound fertilizer operating rates are limited and downstream buyers are purchasing only as needed. Producer inventories and trader concessions are weighing on prices. However, controls on phosphate rock production and relatively tight sulfur supply have raised the cost floor. Producers suffering inverted margins remain willing to support prices, limiting the scope for a steep decline. In the medium term, a recovery in exports will divert domestic supply and raise the reference level for firm pricing, although quota controls will ensure that export volumes are released in an orderly manner. Overall, sharp market fluctuations are unlikely, with both an upper limit and a lower floor. Attention should be paid to autumn fertilizer demand, raw material supply, export execution and incremental demand from the new-energy sector.

DAP: Looking ahead, the DAP market is expected to remain volatile at high levels, weakening before stabilizing. Autumn fertilizer stockpiling is clearly delayed in the short term, downstream buyers strongly resist high prices, traders are making more low-price concessions and producers are restoring operations slowly. The market stalemate lacks an effective catalyst, and weak consolidation is expected to dominate. However, tighter controls on phosphate rock and restricted sulfur supply are systematically raising the cost floor. Producers facing inverted margins are highly willing to support prices, limiting the scope for a steep decline. In the medium term, the recovery in exports will be the key variable. Quotas will favor producers that fulfil domestic supply obligations, and volumes will be released in an orderly rather than unrestricted manner. Exports will divert surplus domestic material and raise the price-support anchor, but the policy objective of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices remains unchanged, meaning that price increases will also be constrained by regulation. In the medium to long term, tight phosphate rock controls and insufficient supply elasticity in sulfur are unlikely to reverse, providing a persistent cost floor. With overall supply and demand broadly balanced, the market is more likely to operate within a range with both an upper limit and a lower floor. Attention should be paid to the actual pace of autumn fertilizer demand, the implementation of export quotas and changes in sulfur and phosphate rock supply.

06 Sulfur Market Analysis

6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

The domestic sulfur market displayed regional divergence and retreated from elevated levels this week. Bullish and bearish forces were clearly contested, and price movements varied significantly among production regions. The overall market strengthened initially before weakening. Activity in the port spot market continued to cool, while domestic production regions remained relatively firm and overall trading sentiment shifted from active to subdued.

Regarding the factors influencing the market this week, cost and international market support weakened first. International sulfur prices were generally stable to lower, with contract prices reduced in some major exporting regions. The circulation of high-priced international cargoes was restricted, while reports of lower-priced overseas transactions continued to weigh on domestic sentiment. Previous external cost support gradually weakened, laying the groundwork for a decline in domestic spot prices.

On the supply side, conditions differed significantly across regions. Units in Northwest and Northeast China operated steadily without concentrated maintenance, overall supply remained stable and regional cargo circulation was smooth. Refinery sales volumes in Shandong tightened temporarily, with producers strongly inclined to hold firm and restrict sales, resulting in tight spot supply. Port availability was relatively ample, but as the market cooled, holders became more willing to sell and some actively lowered quotations to secure transactions. Overall supply conditions therefore shifted from tight to looser.

On the demand side, downstream performance differed by region. Temporary rigid-demand support remained but lacked sustainability. Downstream processing enterprises in Northeast and Northwest China operated steadily without production cuts or shutdowns. Buyers showed good acceptance of high raw material prices, industrial and trading companies actively collected cargoes and transactions performed strongly. Downstream procurement in Shandong recovered, and robust rigid-demand purchasing effectively supported higher local prices. However, after earlier restocking under term contracts was completed, concentrated enquiry activity declined rapidly. Combined with stronger wait-and-see sentiment, end-user follow-through weakened overall. Trading gradually became subdued in most regions, while some producers experienced weaker transactions and more failed auctions.

Overall, the sulfur market gradually shifted from regional strength driven by rigid demand to a high-level decline under pressure. Lower international prices, the completion of end-user restocking and stronger wait-and-see sentiment removed upward momentum. Only a few regions remained firm because of tightly balanced supply and demand. The domestic sulfur market is expected to remain regionally divergent and weakly volatile next week. Port prices still have room to soften, while rigid-demand support should limit declines in production regions. Flexible negotiations and order-specific price adjustments will dominate. Attention should be paid to international price movements, downstream chemical-sector operating loads and changes in regional cargo circulation.

According to Feidoodoo data, on September 11, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,700.00 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne from the previous week; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,680.00 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; lump/powder sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 7,650.00 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; lump/powder sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,630.00 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne; solid sulfur in East China stood at 7,700.00, unchanged from the previous week; and liquid sulfur in East China stood at 7,665.00, up 190 yuan/tonne.

07 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to Feidoodoo data, sulfur inventories at China’s major ports were approximately 970,900 tonnes this week, up 12,900 tonnes, or 1.35%, from the previous week.

08 Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

8.1 Nationwide Sulfur Output Analysis

China’s sampled sulfur output stood at 206,600 tonnes this week, with capacity utilization at 48.62%, up 1.35 percentage points from the previous week.

8.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis

Sampled weekly sulfur output in East China stood at 42,000 tonnes this week, up 5,600 tonnes from the previous week. Capacity utilization was 43.66%, up 5.82 percentage points. East China accounted for 20% of nationwide weekly output.

8.3 East China Capacity Utilization

According to Feidoodoo data, the sulfur industry operating rate in East China was approximately 43.66% this week.

8.4 Solid Sulfur Port Arrivals

According to Feidoodoo data, as of this week, planned September arrivals of imported solid sulfur at China’s major ports temporarily stood at 4,000 tonnes.