Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Cost Support and Weak Demand in a Tug-of-War, Market Stalemated with a Weak Bias (20260814)

01 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis

MAP:

The domestic MAP market moved lower in weak and volatile trading this week. On the cost side, the U.S. and Iran continued their standoff over the Strait of Hormuz this week. Both sides maintained tough diplomatic and military positions, with demands that remain mutually incompatible. Direct negotiations have stalled. Although no large-scale conflict has broken out for now, navigation risks remain and continue to create geopolitical disruptions for the global energy market. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range, port inventories remained low, sulfuric acid prices operated weakly, and phosphate rock stayed high and stable. Multiple raw material prices remain elevated, leaving MAP producers under significant cost pressure. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer progress remains slow, terminal willingness to purchase is weak, compound fertilizer enterprises face finished-product inventory pressure, raw material restocking enthusiasm is insufficient, only small rigid-demand purchases are made, and new order follow-up is weak. Overall, the short-term MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the start pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to costs.

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: this week, the average 55% powder MAP price index was 4394.50, down 11.00 from last week, or -0.25% week on week. The 55% granular MAP price index averaged 4450.00, unchanged from last week, or -0.00% week on week. The 58% powder MAP price index averaged 4693.33, down 6.67 from last week, or -0.14% week on week.

DAP:

The domestic DAP market operated in stalemated consolidation this week. On the cost side, the U.S. and Iran continued their standoff over the Strait of Hormuz this week. Both sides maintained tough diplomatic and military positions, with demands that remain mutually incompatible. Direct negotiations have stalled. Although no large-scale conflict has broken out for now, navigation risks remain and continue to create geopolitical disruptions for the global energy market. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range, port inventories remained low, sulfuric acid prices operated weakly, and phosphate rock prices also stayed high. Multiple raw material prices remain elevated, providing firm support for market prices. On the demand side, downstream procurement remained weak. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, procurement willingness was generally low, only scattered downstream inquiries appeared, actual order follow-up was relatively limited, market trading activity was low, and transactions could not form effective volume. Overall, the short-term DAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: this week, the average 64% granular DAP price index was 4571.67, unchanged from last week, or +0.00% week on week. The 60% brown DAP price index averaged 4350.00, unchanged from last week. The 57% DAP price index averaged 4429.50, down 11.00 from last week, or -0.25% week on week.

02 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Conditions

2.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Conditions

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was about 55.55%, down 0.93 percentage points from last week and down 6.06 percentage points year on year. The MAP operating rate fell slightly during the week and remained below the same period last year.

2.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Conditions

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was about 41.48%, up 2.76 percentage points from last week and down 18.20 percentage points year on year. The DAP operating rate rose during the week and remained below the same period last year.

03 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Output Trend

3.1 Domestic MAP Weekly Output Trend

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, domestic MAP output was about 223,300 tonnes, down 1.67% from last week and down 12.29% year on year. Domestic MAP weekly output decreased during the week and remained below the same period last year.

3.2 Domestic DAP Weekly Output Trend

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, domestic DAP output was about 201,600 tonnes, up 7.12% from last week and down 28.94% year on year. Domestic DAP weekly output increased during the week and remained below the same period last year.

04 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend

4.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trend

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, major domestic MAP port inventory was about 0 tonnes, unchanged from last week.

4.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trend

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, major domestic DAP port inventory was about 29,500 tonnes, unchanged from last week.

05 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

MAP: Looking ahead, the MAP market will continue a tug-of-war between cost and demand. In the short term, high prices of raw materials such as sulfur and phosphate rock, combined with import cargo disruptions caused by geopolitical factors, will keep enterprise production costs elevated. Producers have strong willingness to support prices, and room for a deep price decline is limited. On the supply side, enterprises will flexibly adjust production loads based on orders and raw material conditions, prioritizing execution of previously signed orders. On the demand side, as autumn fertilizer production gradually advances, rigid raw material demand from downstream compound fertilizer enterprises will be released. But under pressure from high-priced raw materials, downstream procurement will remain rational and mostly based on purchase-as-needed. Momentum for large-scale concentrated restocking is insufficient, and demand release has an upper limit. On exports, without obvious policy adjustments, the diversion effect on domestic supply will be limited. Overall, in the absence of major positive drivers, the market is unlikely to form a one-sided rally and will most likely maintain high-level range-bound fluctuations. Follow-up attention should focus on sulfur price volatility, raw material arrivals, the extent of downstream compound fertilizer operating rate increases, and geopolitical changes. If raw materials loosen clearly or terminal fertilizer preparation falls short of expectations, the market may also see its price center move lower.

DAP: Looking ahead, the DAP market is expected to continue high-level narrow consolidation. On the supply side, domestic mainstream enterprises are still mainly executing presale orders. With pending orders providing support, sales pressure is relatively manageable, and producers have strong willingness to support prices in the short term. However, industry operating rates are expected to rise, and later cargo circulation may gradually loosen. On the demand side, the autumn fertilizer preparation cycle has not fully started. Downstream dealers mostly maintain a wait-and-see stance, large-scale restocking has been delayed, and only small volumes are purchased as needed. Demand is unlikely to form effective resonance in the short term. On the cost side, phosphate rock prices remain firm at high levels, while sulfur and synthetic ammonia fluctuations have narrowed. Cost support remains solid and is the key foundation keeping current DAP prices high. On exports, international market prices are attractive, but export inspection and quota controls limit the actual flexibility of exports in adjusting domestic supply and demand. Overall, the current DAP market is balanced in supply-demand bargaining, while high costs and policy price-stabilization constraints act in both directions. Prices have limited room for sharp increases or declines, and the short-term market is expected to maintain high-level narrow consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on the start pace of autumn fertilizer preparation, raw material price trends, and export policy dynamics.

06 Sulfur Market Analysis

6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

The domestic sulfur market overall fluctuated at high levels this week, with the price center moving lower. The market operated around the core tug-of-war between “tight supply and weak demand.” The domestic sulfur supply shortage has not fundamentally reversed, continuing to provide bottom support for market prices and keeping the market broadly at high levels. However, downstream demand is weak, terminal wait-and-see sentiment is strong, trading is light, and bargaining between buyers and sellers has intensified, driving rational price declines across regions. By region, liquid sulfur prices in Northeast China moved lower weakly, holding at high levels with limited regional capacity, but downstream shipments were under pressure and market sentiment was cautious. Prices in Northwest China fell clearly. High selling prices suppressed downstream procurement enthusiasm, and with expectations of unit maintenance and production cuts, market auctions failed multiple times. Traders mainly focused on destocking, and transaction floors continued to move lower. Shandong prices fluctuated narrowly with repeated rises and falls. Affected by expectations of incremental supply and cautious terminal buying, refinery shipments and auction performance were average, demand follow-up was insufficient, terminals only restocked according to rigid demand, and the market remained in stalemated bargaining. East China consolidated at high levels. Some refineries released cargoes ahead of schedule to ease expectations of tight supply. Downstream operations were stable, regional supply-demand conditions were relatively steady, and the overall market remained tight. Overseas markets also weakened. Although overseas supply has not recovered, high USD quotations exceeded buyers’ tolerance, terminal target prices were generally low, high prices suppressed overseas demand, and international spot transactions were light, failing to provide positive support for the domestic market. In domestic circulation, earlier high prices triggered industry risk aversion and wait-and-see behavior. Port inquiries were quiet, holders’ price-support mentality weakened, and shipment willingness was weak. Downstream buyers only selected low-priced cargoes and restocked as needed, price gaps between buyers and sellers were obvious, the market lacked concentrated transaction drivers, and overall weak consolidation continued with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Market outlook: in the short term, sulfur has no clear directional guidance, and the supply-demand bargaining pattern will continue. Tight supply persists, while low inventories and local unit maintenance and production cuts support prices, limiting room for a deep market decline. But demand has no clear recovery expectations, terminal rigid-demand procurement is difficult to break through, and issues such as high prices suppressing buying interest and price gaps between buyers and sellers remain. Market trading is unlikely to improve. Without sudden positive drivers such as unit changes or policy adjustments, the domestic sulfur market is expected to continue high-level weak consolidation in the short term, with the price center potentially moving slightly lower and the overall market maintaining weak operation.

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 14, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 9185.00 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 8980.00 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 8950.00 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 8930.00 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the East China solid sulfur price was 9300.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the East China liquid sulfur price was 9010.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

07 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, major domestic sulfur port inventory was about 841,200 tonnes, down 25,300 tonnes from last week, or -2.92% week on week.

08 Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

8.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, China’s sample sulfur output was 192,900 tonnes, with capacity utilization at 45.39%, up 1.02 percentage points from last week.

8.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, East China sample sulfur weekly output was 26,300 tonnes, up 21,900 tonnes from last week, with capacity utilization at 27.29%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week. East China weekly output accounted for 14% of national output.

8.3 East China Capacity Utilization

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: this week, the domestic sulfur operating rate in East China was about 27.29%.

8.4 Solid Sulfur Arrival Volume

According to Feidoodoo data statistics: as of this week, the planned August import arrival volume of solid sulfur at major domestic ports is temporarily 38,000 tonnes.