Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Phosphate Fertilizer Market Remains Quiet and Stable, Awaiting Autumn Fertilizer Demand Fulfillment

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 10, the domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4402.50, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4693.33, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic MAP market remained stable today. On the enterprise side, most producers are still executing previous orders, traders’ quotations vary, market prices showed no obvious changes, and actual transactions were negotiated case by case. On the market side, sentiment improved somewhat and inquiries increased. On the demand side, inquiries from some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have increased recently, but procurement is limited to small rigid-demand purchases, new order transactions are limited, and demand remains relatively weak. On the raw material side, recent negotiations over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to release positive signals. Although U.S.-Iran tensions remain unresolved, expectations for a recovery in Strait navigation still imply some decline in the energy and chemical risk premium. Domestic sulfur prices weakened and consolidated today with divergent trends. Sulfur port inventories remain relatively low overall, so support is still strong. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation, while phosphate rock remained high and stable, leaving cost-side support intact. Overall, the short-term MAP market is expected to continue mainly narrow fluctuations. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the start pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 10, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4350.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4437.50, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic DAP market operated steadily today. On the enterprise side, some producers mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders, market prices showed no obvious changes, and actual transactions remained negotiable. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remained strong. On the demand side, downstream procurement was relatively slow, compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, procurement willingness was generally low, only scattered downstream inquiries appeared, and actual order follow-up was relatively limited. On the raw material side, recent negotiations over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to release positive signals. Although U.S.-Iran tensions remain unresolved, expectations for a recovery in Strait navigation still imply some decline in the energy and chemical risk premium. Domestic sulfur prices weakened and consolidated today with divergent trends. Sulfur port inventories remain relatively low overall, so support is still strong. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation, while phosphate rock remained high and stable, leaving cost-side support intact. Overall, the short-term DAP market is expected to remain stable. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 10, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 9120 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan from the previous working day; the granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 9100 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 9070 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 9050 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan from the previous working day; the East China solid sulfur price was 9300 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day; and the East China liquid sulfur price was 8995 yuan/tonne, down 55 yuan from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic sulfur market edged lower from high levels today. Port quotations for imported granular sulfur declined slightly, traders maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude, actual market transactions were generally weak, and negotiations mostly referred to mainstream information prices with flexible settlement. Domestic liquid sulfur weakened. High prices in Shandong clearly suppressed downstream procurement, downstream buying interest cooled, auction cargoes failed to trade, and the spot trading atmosphere continued to fade. Auction sentiment in Northwest China was poor and market sentiment was relatively negative, while liquid sulfur prices in Northeast China remained relatively stable. On the supply side, uncertainty remains in U.S.-Iran geopolitics. Iran and Oman have reached preliminary consensus on temporary navigation arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz, but the agreement still awaits final approval by Iran’s National Security Council. If the agreement is implemented smoothly, phased resumption of passage through this key route will be achieved, and the agreement is expected to have a fixed validity period. Even with expectations for navigation recovery, repeated geopolitical tensions may still push up war-risk insurance premiums and cause shipping delays. The geopolitical risk premium continues to support international sulfur prices. Affected by overseas geopolitical and shipping disruptions, the arrival pace of imported cargoes remains uncertain, and overall port stocks are relatively low, providing bottom support for spot prices. On the demand side, downstream phosphate fertilizer producers continue to face pressure from high raw material costs. Although the approaching autumn fertilizer season brings restocking expectations, finished-product shipment pressure remains. Enterprises mainly restock according to rigid demand, with insufficient willingness for large-scale active stockpiling. Other chemical downstream sectors are also constrained by costs, demand release is limited, and the risk of negative demand feedback under high prices still needs attention. Market outlook: on the supply side, attention should focus on the evolution of U.S.-Iran geopolitics and the actual navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. If later negotiations ease, Strait navigation remains smooth, and imported cargoes arrive in an orderly manner, domestic supply tightness will be eased. If geopolitical conflict escalates again and shipping passage is blocked, the market may strengthen again.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 10: In Anhui, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4480-4520 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Northeast China, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4250-4250 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Henan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4430-4480 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Hubei, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder MAP were around 4350-4450 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Jiangsu, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4400-4520 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Shandong, 55% powder MAP delivered quotations were around 4420-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Sichuan, 55% powder MAP delivered quotations were around 4300-4350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Yunnan, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were around 4250-4300 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4300-4350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4550-4600 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup quotations were 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4800-4850 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 10: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse quotations were 4900-5000 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% DAP self-pickup station quotations were 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.