August 12 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Geopolitical Risk Lifts the Cost Floor, while Weak Downstream Procurement Caps Upside

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 12, the domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4392.50, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4693.33, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic MAP market continued to operate with a weak bias today. On the enterprise side, most producers are still executing previous orders, some traders’ prices are slightly lower, market prices were temporarily stable, and actual transactions were negotiated. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong. On the demand side, demand from some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises showed no obvious improvement, only small rigid-demand procurement was maintained, new order transactions were limited, and demand remained relatively weak. On the raw material side, U.S.-Iran negotiations have again shown differences. U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could use “great power” to strike Iran, while Iran also stated that the Strait would not open unless the United States accepts Iran’s conditions. Navigation uncertainty remains high. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range today, while sulfur port inventories remain relatively low overall. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation, and phosphate rock remained high and stable, so cost-side support remains relatively strong. Overall, the short-term MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the start pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 12, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4350.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4437.50, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic DAP market continued its wait-and-see stance today. On the enterprise side, some producers mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders, market prices showed no obvious changes, and actual transactions remained negotiable. On the market side, stalemate and wait-and-see sentiment remained relatively strong. On the demand side, downstream demand support was weak, compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, procurement willingness was generally low, only scattered downstream inquiries appeared, and actual order follow-up was relatively limited. On the raw material side, U.S.-Iran negotiations have again shown differences. U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could use “great power” to strike Iran, while Iran also stated that the Strait would not open unless the United States accepts Iran’s conditions. Navigation uncertainty remains high. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range today, while sulfur port inventories remain relatively low overall. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. Raw material costs at the cost side remained high, cost pressure continued to intensify, and support for the market remained strong. Overall, the short-term DAP market is expected to continue consolidating with a wait-and-see stance. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 12, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 9100 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day; the granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 9080 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was stable from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 9030 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day; the East China solid sulfur price was 9300 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day; and the East China liquid sulfur price was 8795 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic sulfur market overall maintained high-level narrow fluctuations today. Port quotations for imported granular sulfur were stable, but trading was quiet throughout the day. Buyers and sellers both maintained strong wait-and-see sentiment and were unwilling to actively negotiate, with negative sentiment dominating the market. Regional markets diverged. Shandong independent refinery auctions rose slightly and transaction sentiment was stable, though a small amount of cargo failed to trade. Downstream buyers only made small restocking purchases as needed, with no support from concentrated procurement. Northwest auction transactions were weak and saw failed trades, while Northeast liquid sulfur prices remained stable. Inventories in each region showed no obvious pressure, low-priced cargoes had small premiums, and overall supply-demand conditions remained stable, lacking a unilateral upward or downward driver. On geopolitics, the U.S.-Iran confrontation continues and the Middle East situation shows signs of renewed escalation. U.S. President Donald Trump again said the United States could use great power to strike Iran, while Iran also stated that the Strait would not open unless the United States accepts Iran’s conditions. Long-term navigation risks remain in the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over Middle Eastern sulfur export supply provides bottom support for the market. In the short term, sulfur is expected to continue its current high-level consolidation. Without sudden overseas shipping disruptions or positive support from concentrated downstream fertilizer preparation, the market is unlikely to fluctuate sharply. Afternoon port and liquid sulfur transactions should continue to be monitored. In the medium term, repeated U.S.-Iran tensions remain the core variable. If Strait navigation is blocked, bullish sentiment will be quickly boosted; if arrivals remain stable, prices will come under pressure. With downstream autumn fertilizer preparation gradually starting, the market is likely to fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, global sulfur supply recovery remains slow, geopolitical risks cannot be fully cleared for a long period, and domestic demand will fluctuate seasonally. Sulfur is unlikely to form a one-way trend and is expected to mainly move in range-bound waves.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 12: In Anhui, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4450-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Northeast China, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4250-4250 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Henan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4430-4480 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Hubei, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder MAP were around 4350-4450 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Jiangsu, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Shandong, 55% powder MAP delivered quotations were around 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Sichuan, 55% powder MAP delivered quotations were around 4300-4350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Yunnan, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were around 4250-4300 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4300-4350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4550-4600 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup quotations were 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4800-4850 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 12: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse quotations were 4900-5000 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% DAP self-pickup station quotations were 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.