August 11 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Cost Support and Weak Demand in a Tug-of-War, Market Consolidates with a Weak Bias

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 11, the domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4392.50, down 0.23% from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4693.33, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic MAP market operated with a weak bias today. On the enterprise side, most producers are still executing previous orders, some traders’ prices are slightly lower, market prices edged down, and actual transactions were negotiated. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong. On the demand side, demand from some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises showed no obvious improvement, only small rigid-demand procurement was maintained, new order transactions were limited, and demand remained relatively weak. On the raw material side, U.S.-Iran negotiations have again shown differences, both sides have raised war compensation claims, commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to decline, and navigation uncertainty remains high. This continues to provide cost-premium support for agricultural raw materials such as sulfur and phosphate fertilizer. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range today, while sulfur port inventories remain relatively low overall. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation, and phosphate rock remained high and stable, so cost-side support remains relatively strong. Overall, the short-term MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the start pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 11, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4350.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4437.50, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic DAP market operated steadily with a wait-and-see stance today. On the enterprise side, some producers mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders, market prices showed no obvious changes, and actual transactions remained negotiable. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remained strong. On the demand side, downstream procurement was relatively slow, compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, procurement willingness was generally low, only scattered downstream inquiries appeared, and actual order follow-up was relatively limited. On the raw material side, U.S.-Iran negotiations have again shown differences, both sides have raised war compensation claims, commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to decline, and navigation uncertainty remains high. This continues to provide cost-premium support for agricultural raw materials such as sulfur and phosphate fertilizer. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range today, while sulfur port inventories remain relatively low overall. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. Raw material costs at the cost side remained high, cost pressure continued to intensify, and support for the market remained strong. Overall, the short-term DAP market is expected to continue consolidating. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 11, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 9100 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 9080 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 9050 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 9030 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the East China solid sulfur price was 9300 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day; and the East China liquid sulfur price was 8795 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

The U.S.-Iran confrontation continues, long-term navigation risks remain in the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over Middle Eastern sulfur export supply provides bottom support for the market. Today, the domestic sulfur market fluctuated narrowly overall, regional trends diverged, and market wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Port quotations for imported granular sulfur edged lower, terminals only made scattered inquiries, and actual transactions were rare. Domestic refinery shipments were under pressure. Shandong independent refinery auction prices moved lower and participation enthusiasm was insufficient. East China refineries started presale auctions, further strengthening bearish sentiment, while inventory accumulation forced starting prices lower. The transaction center of Northwest auctions moved lower, and Northeast liquid sulfur prices also declined. In the short term, small rigid-demand restocking in Shandong slightly warmed the auction atmosphere, and some local cargoes saw premiums, but the market procurement logic has not fundamentally changed. Buyers have a strong willingness to bargain-hunt at low prices, purchasing pace remains cautious, and holders have strong shipment needs. Even with sellers offering concessions, it remains difficult to stimulate bulk transactions, and port spot cargoes continue weak consolidation. Demand-side support is weak. Concentrated autumn fertilizer preparation has not yet started, MAP/DAP and compound fertilizer enterprises are operating at low levels, and only small volumes are purchased as needed. The short-term market remains in high-level fluctuations. Geopolitical risk is protecting the price bottom, leaving no room for a deep decline for now. But weak downstream demand and strong buyer wait-and-see sentiment leave prices lacking upward momentum. Intraday trading reflects long-short bargaining, with focus on afternoon liquid sulfur and port cargo transactions. In the long term, if the U.S.-Iran situation eases and shipping lanes recover smoothly, sufficient imported cargoes combined with the end of autumn fertilizer demand will move the sulfur price center lower. If geopolitical conflict escalates and shipping is obstructed, tighter supply will drive a price rebound.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 11: In Anhui, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4450-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations lowered.

August 11: In Northeast China, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4250-4250 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 11: In Henan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4430-4480 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 11: In Hubei, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder MAP were around 4350-4450 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 11: In Jiangsu, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations lowered.

August 11: In Shandong, 55% powder MAP delivered quotations were around 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations lowered.

August 11: In Sichuan, 55% powder MAP delivered quotations were around 4300-4350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 11: In Yunnan, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were around 4250-4300 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 11: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4300-4350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 11: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4550-4600 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 11: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup quotations were 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 11: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4800-4850 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 11: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse quotations were 4900-5000 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% DAP self-pickup station quotations were 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.