August 17 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Cost-Side Pressure Persists, Downstream Procurement Waits for Autumn Demand to Start

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 17, the domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4392.50, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4693.33, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic MAP market continued to operate with a weak bias today. On the enterprise side, most producers are still executing previous orders, some traders’ prices are slightly lower, market prices were temporarily stable, and actual transactions were negotiated. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong. On the demand side, demand from some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises showed no obvious improvement, only small rigid-demand procurement was maintained, new order transactions were limited, and demand remained relatively weak. On the raw material side, the U.S. and Iran continued their standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations remained deadlocked, shipping risks increased, and trade in energy and fertilizer raw materials continued to be disrupted. No substantive easing is likely in the short term. Domestic sulfur prices operated weakly today, while sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation, and phosphate rock stayed high and stable, so cost-side support remains relatively strong. Overall, the short-term MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the start pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 17, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4350.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4417.50, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic DAP market continued to consolidate today. On the enterprise side, some producers mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders, market prices showed no obvious changes, and actual transactions remained negotiable. On the market side, trading sentiment remained stalemated and wait-and-see. On the demand side, downstream demand support was weak, compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, procurement willingness was generally low, market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, only scattered downstream inquiries appeared, and actual order follow-up was relatively limited. On the raw material side, the U.S. and Iran continued their standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations remained deadlocked, shipping risks increased, and trade in energy and fertilizer raw materials continued to be disrupted. No substantive easing is likely in the short term. Domestic sulfur prices weakened and consolidated today, while sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak operation, and phosphate rock prices stayed high and stable. Raw material costs remained high, cost pressure continued to intensify, and support for the market remained strong. Overall, the short-term DAP market is expected to maintain stalemated consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations: on August 17, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 8950 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 8930 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 8900 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port was 8880 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; the East China solid sulfur price was 9300 yuan/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day; and the East China liquid sulfur price was 8860 yuan/tonne, down 150 yuan/tonne from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic sulfur spot market overall continued to operate weakly today, but regional performance diverged, and market sentiment remained mainly wait-and-see. In the port market, domestic imported sulfur offers and transactions remained in a high range, but actual transaction prices were under pressure compared with offers. Meanwhile, presale tender prices were clearly lower, reflecting more cautious market expectations for forward cargo prices. In Shandong, sulfur auction sentiment improved significantly today, and transaction prices at independent refinery auctions recovered from previous lows. Since yesterday, market sentiment has gradually improved, downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased, demand followed up in a concentrated manner, auction premiums were obvious, and market prices showed signs of stopping declines and rebounding. From the overall supply-demand pattern, the sulfur market is still in a tug-of-war between tight supply and weak demand. On the supply side, international supply is difficult to recover in the short term, Middle East geopolitical shipping risks continue, and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain one of the core factors in market bargaining. On the demand side, operating loads at major domestic downstream sectors remain weak. Industries such as phosphate fertilizer are pressured by high sulfur costs, most enterprises purchasing external raw materials are still loss-making, industry operating rates remain low, procurement strength is limited, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. Overall, today’s market showed a divergent pattern of “port stalemate and Shandong recovery.” The port market is constrained by high prices suppressing demand, and the price gap between actual transactions and presale tenders reflects cautious expectations for the outlook. The recovery in Shandong auctions indicates that some staged local restocking demand has been released, which may provide some bottom support for the market. But from a price perspective, sulfur prices overall are still in the high range of the one-year cycle, upside room is limited, and correction pressure remains if later support from positive factors is lacking. In the short term, the market may continue stalemated consolidation. Follow-up attention should focus on changes in Middle East geopolitics and the impact of the start of autumn fertilizer preparation on downstream demand.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 17: In Anhui, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4450-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Northeast China, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4250-4250 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Henan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4430-4480 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Hubei, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder MAP were around 4350-4450 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Jiangsu, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were around 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Shandong, 55% powder MAP delivered quotations were around 4400-4500 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Sichuan, 55% powder MAP delivered quotations were around 4300-4350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Yunnan, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were around 4250-4300 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4300-4350 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4550-4600 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup quotations were 4380-4450 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were 4800-4850 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.

August 17: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse quotations were 4900-5000 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% DAP self-pickup station quotations were 4400-4450 yuan/tonne, with quotations stable.