Crude Falls For Third Straight Month As Demand Worries Hit

September 7, 2022

Master Boyi

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Highlights at a glance

On August 31, international crude oil futures extended losses, with WTI and Brent posting their third consecutive monthly declines amid growing concerns over slowing global economic growth and weakening demand. WTI futures fell 2.3% to $89.55 a barrel, while Brent declined to $95.64, as supply outlooks improved. OPEC output reached 29.6 million bpd and U.S. production hit 11.82 million bpd, the highest since April 2020. The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee forecast a 400,000 bpd surplus in 2022, fueling speculation of production cuts ahead of their upcoming meeting. Despite a weekly drawdown in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, rising supply potential—including from Iran—pressured prices. WTI dropped 9.2% in August, down 21.91% over three months, trimming its 2022 gain to 19.07%. Brent fell 12.29% in August, down 21.45% cumulatively, with its year-to-date gain at 24.06%. Both remain significantly higher year-on-year. Crude markets contrast sharply with 2021’s record gains driven by s

News on August 31: On Wednesday, international crude oil futures fell further, with three consecutive negative lines on the monthly chart, as the prospect of a further slowdown in the global economy was worrying.

As of the close, the most actively traded West Texas Intermediate (WTI) October contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell $2.09, or 2.3%, to $89.55 a barrel.

Brent crude for November, the global benchmark, was down $2.2 at $95.64 a barrel. October Brent crude, which expires Wednesday, was down $2.82, or 2.8%, at $96.49 a barrel.

In the months following the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that erupted in late February, crude traders were mainly concerned with supply shortages and the difficulty of producers in the OPEC alliance to increase output, which also made near-term contracts trade at a steep premium to forward contracts. But the inversion has seen some reversals as production has increased.

Oil output from both OPEC and the United States has returned to levels not seen since the early days of the pandemic, according to a survey released on Wednesday. OPEC’s crude output reached 29.6 million bpd in the latest month, while U.S. crude output rose to 11.82 million bpd in June, both at their highest levels since April 2020.

Fears of slowing demand, coupled with the possibility of additional supply (such as Iran), weighed on the market, analysts said.

On Wednesday, the OPEC alliance’s Joint Technical Committee released a report predicting a crude oil surplus of 400,000 bpd in 2022, an increase of 100,000 bpd from its forecast a month ago. Some members of the OPEC alliance have called for production cuts. The group will meet next Monday.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

In August, WTI crude oil fell by 9.2%, which was also the third consecutive month of decline, with a cumulative decline of 21.91% in the three months.

The gain of WTI crude oil has narrowed to 19.07% so far this year, and the closing price on Wednesday was up 30.56% year-on-year.

Brent crude oil fell 12.29% in August, also falling for the third consecutive month, with a cumulative decline of 21.45% in the three months. At the end of this year, Brent crude oil's gains narrowed to 24.06%, and the closing price on Wednesday was up 34.78% year-on-year.

In 2021, WTI crude oil rose 55.5%, the largest annual gain since 2009, and Brent crude oil rose 50.5%, the largest gain since 2016, mainly due to strong demand and limited supply growth.

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