August 6 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: High-Level Divergence in Raw-Material Sulfur, Cost Support and Weak Demand Continue to Contend

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 6, China's 55% powdered MAP index was 4,402.50, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powdered MAP index was 4,693.33, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's MAP market ran in weak consolidation today. On the producer side, most factories were still fulfilling earlier orders, traders' offers varied, market prices showed no obvious changes, and actual transactions remained negotiable. On the market side, sentiment improved somewhat and inquiries increased. On the demand side, inquiries from some downstream compound fertilizer producers have increased recently, but purchases remain limited to small essential volumes, new orders are limited, and demand remains relatively weak. On the raw material side, recent US-Iran talks over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to release positive signals. According to the latest news, Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary consensus on temporary navigation arrangements. The agreement still awaits final approval from Iran's National Security Council. If implemented smoothly, it will be valid for 60 days and aims to restore passage through the key shipping lane in stages. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated with a firm bias today, with divergent trends, while overall sulfur port inventories remained relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation. Phosphate rock stayed high and stable, leaving cost-side support still relatively strong. Overall, the MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation in the short term. Further attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stockbuilding, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 6, China's mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4,437.50, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's DAP market ran steadily today. On the producer side, some companies focused mainly on shipping earlier pending orders, market prices showed no obvious changes, and actual transactions remained negotiable. On the market side, sentiment remained strongly wait-and-see. On the demand side, downstream purchasing was slow. Compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, purchasing willingness was generally weak, downstream inquiries were scattered, and actual order follow-through was relatively limited. On the raw material side, recent US-Iran talks over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to release positive signals. According to the latest news, Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary consensus on temporary navigation arrangements. The agreement still awaits final approval from Iran's National Security Council. If implemented smoothly, it will be valid for 60 days and aims to restore passage through the key shipping lane in stages. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated with a firm bias today, with divergent trends, while overall sulfur port inventories remained relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation. Phosphate rock prices remained high and stable, with raw material costs staying elevated and cost pressure continuing to increase, providing strong support to the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. Further attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 6, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 9,150.00, unchanged from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 9,130.00, unchanged from the previous working day; powder and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 9,100.00, unchanged from the previous working day; powder and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was 9,080.00, unchanged from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was 9,300.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was 9,100.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's domestic sulfur market continued its high-level tug-of-war today, with solid and liquid sulfur showing divergent performance. Port offers for imported granular sulfur remained stable, traders held a strong wait-and-see attitude, actual trading was generally weak, and negotiations mostly used mainstream information prices for flexible settlement. Domestic liquid sulfur showed clear regional differences. In Shandong, prices rose earlier under the influence of local refinery auctions, and the market was once firm with support from essential stockbuilding. But after prices rose to a key level, high prices clearly suppressed downstream procurement, buying interest cooled, some resources failed to sell at auction, and spot trading sentiment weakened. Northwest refineries held multiple rounds of auctions, and most cargoes were sold, but the regional spread between high- and low-end prices was wide. Liquid sulfur in Northeast China remained relatively stable. For domestic solid sulfur, Northwest factory auctions continued and transactions were concluded, but regional price-spread issues remained prominent. Market attention focused on follow-through transactions for liquid sulfur and port cargoes. On the supply side, US-Iran geopolitical uncertainty remains. Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary consensus on temporary navigation arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, but the agreement still awaits final approval from Iran's National Security Council. If the agreement is implemented smoothly, the key shipping lane will resume passage in stages, and the agreement is expected to have a fixed validity period. Even with expectations for navigation recovery, repeated geopolitical volatility may still raise war-risk insurance premiums and disrupt shipping schedules, so the geopolitical risk premium continues to support international sulfur prices. Because of overseas geopolitical and shipping disruptions, the arrival pace of imported cargoes remains uncertain, and overall port stock levels are low, providing bottom support for spot prices. On the demand side, downstream phosphate fertilizer producers continue to face high raw-material cost pressure. Although the approach of autumn fertilizer stockbuilding brings expectations for replenishment, finished-product sales pressure remains, and most companies mainly replenish only as needed. Willingness to actively stockpile in large volumes is insufficient. Other downstream chemical sectors are also constrained by costs, demand release is limited, and the risk of negative demand feedback under high prices still needs attention. Looking ahead, the supply side should focus on US-Iran geopolitical developments and actual navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. If negotiations ease and navigation remains smooth, imported cargoes will arrive in an orderly manner and tight domestic supply will be relieved. If geopolitical conflict escalates again and shipping passage is obstructed, the market may strengthen again.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 6: In Anhui, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,480-4,520/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 6: In Northeast China, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 6: In Henan, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,430-4,480/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 6: In Hubei, mainstream ex-works prices for 55% powdered MAP were around RMB 4,350-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

August 6: In Jiangsu, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,400-4,520/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 6: In Shandong, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 6: In Sichuan, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 6: In Yunnan, ex-works prices for 55% powdered MAP were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers stable.

August 6: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

August 6: In Northeast China, 64% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

August 6: In Hebei, 57% DAP was offered for self-pickup at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.

August 6: In Hubei, 64% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers stable.

August 6: In Shandong, 64% DAP was offered ex-warehouse for self-pickup at RMB 4,900-5,000/tonne, with offers stable; 57% DAP was offered at the station for self-pickup at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.