August 26 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Sharp Sulfur Declines Weigh on the Market as MAP and DAP Remain in a Stalemate

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 26, the domestic 55% powder MAP price index was 4,373.75, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP price index was 4,450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP price index was 4,693.33, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic MAP market continued to operate weakly today. On the producer side, most plants are still fulfilling earlier orders. Market prices showed no material change, trader quotations varied, and firm transactions remain subject to negotiation. On the market side, the wait-and-see atmosphere has not improved materially. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers are mainly using raw materials stocked earlier and are maintaining only limited rigid-demand procurement. New-order transactions are limited, market sentiment remains cautious and deadlocked, and demand continues to be weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to decline sharply today; port sulfur inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices remained weak; and the phosphate rock market remained under pressure. However, phosphate rock prices are still trading within a relatively high historical range. Although cost-side prices have declined, cost support remains substantial. Overall, the MAP market is expected to maintain weak consolidation in the short term. Attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of autumn fertilizer procurement by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the pass-through impact of geopolitical developments on costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 26, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP price index was 4,571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP price index was 4,700.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP price index was 4,410.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic DAP market continued to consolidate in a wait-and-see pattern today. On the producer side, some producers are mainly shipping earlier contracted orders awaiting delivery. Their willingness to support prices remains strong, and firm transactions are subject to negotiation. On the market side, trading activity remains low. On the demand side, there has been no material recovery and market deliveries remain slow overall. Although the autumn fertilizer procurement window is gradually approaching and transactions have improved slightly from earlier levels, actual downstream follow-up remains limited and large-scale procurement has not yet begun. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to decline sharply today; port sulfur inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices remained weak; and the phosphate rock market remained under pressure. However, phosphate rock prices are still trading within a relatively high historical range. Raw material prices on the cost side remain elevated. Although cost pressure has eased slightly, costs continue to provide strong market support. Overall, the DAP market is expected to maintain narrow-range consolidation in the short term. Attention should focus on changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 26, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,800 yuan/tonne, down 200 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 7,750 yuan/tonne, down 200 yuan/tonne; powdered and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,780 yuan/tonne, down 200 yuan/tonne; powdered and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 7,730 yuan/tonne, down 200 yuan/tonne; solid sulfur in East China was priced at 8,700 yuan/tonne, unchanged; and liquid sulfur in East China was priced at 8,500 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic sulfur market continued to decline overall today. Market sentiment remained weak, port spot trading was soft, and sellers had to lower quotations in line with the market to stimulate sales. Supply concerns previously lifted by Middle East geopolitical tensions have eased. The market is gradually shifting from geopolitical premiums back to fundamental supply-demand logic. Current prices remain in the mid-to-high range of the annual cycle, leaving relatively limited room for short-term gains.

By region, trading at Yangtze River ports, the main distribution hub, weakened significantly and sellers faced greater shipment pressure. The liquid sulfur market in Shandong gradually weakened, auction sentiment among independent refineries cooled, and downstream purchasing interest declined. Transactions in Northwest China also failed to improve, while the gap between high- and low-end prices widened further. Overall, most regions are under pressure, with only a few remaining relatively stable.

On the supply-demand side, the market currently faces an interplay of bullish and bearish factors. The medium- to long-term tight supply-demand balance in the global sulfur market has not fundamentally changed, and expectations of supply contraction remain. On the demand side, demand continues to be the main factor weighing on the market. The downstream phosphate and compound fertilizer sector is in its traditional demand lull, finished fertilizer sales are sluggish, producers are maintaining cautious operating rates, and industry profitability is under pressure. Raw material procurement is limited to just-in-time replenishment for rigid demand, buyers resist high-priced cargoes, and willingness to build inventories proactively remains weak. Follow-up from other downstream chemical sectors is also limited, with no concentrated restocking. Weak terminal demand continues to constrain spot-market upside. The contest between supply and demand leaves the market without a clear directional driver. Overall, sulfur prices are under pressure at high levels and trading with a volatile but weak tone. Attention should remain on Middle East developments, the pace of imported cargo arrivals, and marginal changes in downstream operating rates and purchasing willingness.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 26: In Anhui, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,400-4,430 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Northeast China, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Henan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,350-4,420 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Hubei, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder MAP were quoted at around 4,300-4,350 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Jiangsu, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,380-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Shandong, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,350-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Sichuan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,300-4,350 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Yunnan, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around 4,250-4,300 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were quoted at 4,700-4,750 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were quoted at 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were quoted at 4,380-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were quoted at 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 26: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup warehouse prices were quoted at 4,900-5,000 yuan/tonne, unchanged; 57% DAP self-pickup terminal prices were quoted at 4,400-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.