August 20 Pesticide Daily Review: Continued Divergence

The pesticide market remained generally weak in sentiment. Downstream demand follow-up was limited during the traditional off-season, leaving the market without sufficient drivers. The logic supporting higher costs has moderated as geopolitical tensions eased. Some products still have cost support, while supply has contracted to some extent due to various factors. However, price increases have continued to trigger negative feedback downstream because of weak transmission along the industrial chain, and the market is waiting to see whether end-user demand can provide stronger support. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, and the window for ceasefire negotiations between the two sides has expired, renewing market concerns. The issue of control over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz also remains difficult to resolve. Higher freight costs and damage to petrochemical supply chains remain irreversible in the short term, maintaining underlying cost support. Overall, market caution persists. Price increases among some upstream products continue to face resistance in transmission to downstream markets, upward momentum has paused, and the wait-and-see mood remains apparent. Attention should remain on geopolitical developments, export activity, and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides: The herbicide market is currently operating weakly overall, with limited demand follow-up. Although geopolitical risks continue to support higher costs, insufficient demand absorption has failed to provide market momentum. The United States has invoked the Defense Production Act to designate elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides as critical defense materials, requiring priority supply to the domestic market. This continues to support the domestic market. In addition, Bayer has withdrawn its application for antidumping and countervailing-duty investigations into Chinese glyphosate, easing negative sentiment, although actual demand still requires further observation. Overall, downstream buyers are maintaining rigid-demand procurement. Weak short-term demand support continues to weigh on market sentiment. Attention should focus on whether exports improve and on changes in geopolitical sentiment.

Yellow Phosphorus: Yellow phosphorus prices rose slightly today. Market sentiment had softened somewhat earlier, and only limited inquiries and spot transactions are currently taking place, with producers mainly shipping contracted orders. The market temporarily lacks a driver for significant price fluctuations. However, upstream inventories remain relatively limited in the short term, and some producers have recently reduced output, leaving conditions for price support in place. Downstream acceptance of high prices remains limited, and buyers continue to seek lower prices. In the short term, upstream producers are shipping contracted orders while downstream buyers purchase according to demand. With follow-up demand slowing, market sentiment has come under some pressure. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the near term.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides:

98% 2,4-D fell by 500 yuan to 13,500 yuan/tonne; 95% glufosinate rose by 500 yuan to 51,000 yuan/tonne; 95% nicosulfuron fell by 2,000 yuan to 153,000 yuan/tonne; 96% bispyribac-sodium fell by 5,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan/tonne; 97% haloxyfop-P-methyl fell by 3,000 yuan to 115,000 yuan/tonne.

Insecticides:

97% nitenpyram fell by 3,000 yuan to 113,000 yuan/tonne. 97% pymetrozine fell by 2,000 yuan to 96,000 yuan/tonne.

Fungicides:

95% tricyclazole fell by 2,000 yuan to 62,000 yuan/tonne.